The Magic Deal
You really can’t make this sh*t up…Numerous reports have been circulating around the Internet that the league rejected the Devil’s most recent contract proposal to sign premiere left wing Ilya Kovalchuk over two weeks after the initial seventeen-year deal was rejected by arbitrator Richard Bloch. Reports are saying the length of the most recently proposed deal was anywhere from 10-15 years. Others indicate this was not the first deal the league has rejected. Since league representatives and the Devils have remained mum on the entire situation, we as fans can only speculate on what’s really going on behind the scenes and why this treacherous saga has continued as long as it has with its end seemingly shrouded in more mystery than the truth behind the Roswell crash or existence of Bigfoot and the Loch Ness Monster.
To speculate, one has to ask why a deal can’t be worked out that mutually satisfies both parties (Devils/Kovalchuk, NHL). Is it because The Devils or league are being too stubborn? Is the league on a witch hunt for the Devils? Does Gary Bettman want Kovalchuk to play on a team with a larger hockey market, if he wants to have Kovalchuk, let alone the game’s premiere talents in the league at all? Has the league finally had enough of what are being called “front loaded” contracts that stretch over a period of time? Most of these possibilities are more than likely to be untrue and are beliefs or conspiracy theories frustrated Devils fans developed in the heat of rage.
The origins behind Part II of the Kovalchuk Saga go back to the initial seventeen-year deal. Although I may have said else wise whether it was on Facebook, Twitter, or in previous write ups, I regret to admit the league and Richard Bloch’s decision to reject the deal was justified. Although the Devils likely meant well when the deal was signed, the contract was a definitively front loaded deal. Now with reports that the league has rejected framework of proposed deals by the Devils subsequent to the first one, the universal question amongst Devils fans and possibly hockey fans in general is what the framework of this “magic deal” ought to be.
The first and easiest part is determining the length. To sum it up, seventeen years was ridiculous and the Devils clearly chose that number to ably give Kovalchuk the $100 million he wanted, while having a manageable cap hit throughout its duration. Although nobody can say Kovalchuk won’t play until he’s forty-four, his age when the initial deal were to expire, I stated in a previous write up the statistical probability behind him playing at that age is less than one percent. You can argue from various standpoints why the initial deal shouldn’t have been rejected but it was and now it’s time to move on. I see no reason why the Devils can’t award Kovalchuk a career contract the league won’t have any issue with. 12-13 years is reasonable, and is about the average length of every long term contract that’s more than ten years. Kovalchuk will be 39-40 when the deal expires and there are plenty of people that have and still play at that age so I don’t want to hear the league whine about any uncertainties of that nature.
The biggest obstacle that’s kept the Kovalchuk Saga afloat is how to properly distribute the salary. If past reports are correct, the framework of the most recent deal the league shot down distributed $84-91 million over ten plus years. Whether Kovalchuk lowered his asking price, bonuses were involved, or the deal offered a sum of money up front (like what the Rangers did when they attempted to sign Joe Sakic in 1997, although that could be literal front loading so call me on it if that’s the case), the deal wasn’t valid in the league’s eyes. One thing we could use to reach a compromise are the contracts of Vancouver’s Roberto Luongo, Chicago’s Marian Hossa, Philadelphia’s Chris Pronger, and Boston’s Marc Savard, all of which are currently being “investigated” by the league. Despite these ongoing investigations, It’s my opinion the league used the Devils as an example in rejecting a legitimate front loaded contract and are using these contract investigations as a method of intimidation to at least make teams think twice about signing players to similar long term deals. If the contracts were approved in the past, why not use them as guidelines to work out a deal for Kovalchuk?
The key is in the numbers and percentages of these contracts and how they differ from the numbers that pieced together the rejected seventeen-year deal. Marian Hossa’s twelve-year contract pays him $63 million. He receives 87% of the $63 million in the first seven years of the deal, which makes up 58% of the contract’s term length. Chris Pronger’s seven-year deal pays him $31.2 million. He receives 97% of the $31.2 million after the first five years, after which 71% of the contract’s term length has been completed. Marc Savard’s seven-year contract pays him $28 million. After the first four years, he receives 91% of the $28 million, after which 57% of the contract’s term length has been completed. Roberto Luongo receives $64 million over twelve years. After eight years, he receives 89% of the $64 million, after which 66% of the contract’s term length has been completed. In Ilya Kovalchuk’s seventeen-year contract, where he would have received $102 million, he would have earned 93% of the $102 million in the first ten years after completing only 58% of the contract’s term length. Before the annual salaries drop to under $2 million in the contracts of the four players I mentioned, the average percentage of money that was paid off amongst the four players is 91% with an average of 63% of the contracts term lengths having passed. If you apply the average percentages of paid off salary and years completed in Kovalchuk’s rejected seventeen-year deal, he’d have received $92 million after the first 10-11 years, leaving $10 million to be distributed over the final 6-7 years.
In terms of percentages, could 91% in relation to salary distribution and 63% in relation to completed term length be the magic numbers? Although these numbers were averaged out of contracts that are “under investigation” in the event the Devils work out a deal based off these terms, it would be unreasonable for the league to reject the contract because the salary distribution over the period of years is within the bounds of contracts being investigated, which were previously approved by the league, and are still valid deals, which is something the Devils and NHLPA could use as leverage in the event of a second arbitration hearing, which at this point I believe would only happen in a case of extremes.
Getting back to what I was saying earlier, 12-13 years could be the length to shoot for. If Kovalchuk did indeed lower his asking price between $84-91 million (we’ll use $87 million over thirteen years in this hypothetical situation), he’ll receive $79 million after the first eight years of the contract, leaving $8 million to be distributed over the final five years, which averages out to about $1.6 million per. It would give Kovalchuk a $6.7 million cap hit per season, only $700K more than the cap hit in the seventeen-year deal. I’m not one to speculate, but if I were to distribute the $87 million salary over thirteen years based on the “magic terms” I described above, I would structure it as follows:
2010-2011: $9.4 million
2011-2012: $10.7 million
2012-2013: $11.7 million
2013-2014: $11.7 million
2014-2015: $11.5 million
2015-2016: $10.5 million
2016-2017: $8 million
2017-2018: $5.5 million
2018-2019: $3 million
2019-2020: $2 million
2020-2021: $1 million
2021-2022: $1 million
2022-2023: $1 million
At first sight, the deal does appear front loaded but I made sure to put in some distinguishable differences from the contracts I mentioned above. Although Kovalchuk’s highest annual payment would earn him $11.7 million, note the greatest fluctuation on a year-to-year basis throughout the deal is $2.5 million, compared to fluctuations that exceed $3 million in the other deals. Kovalchuk also receives a salary under $2 million in the final three years, which is the average number of years the players of the four other contracts I used earn salaries under $2 million. I would also give Kovalchuk an NMC and NTC that remains active throughout most or the entire contract, giving him the final call in the event he or the Devils look into moving him. I wouldn’t call it the perfect contract, but based on the numbers I’ve accumulated, could be the magic terms the Devils and NHL could agree upon to end this treacherous drama. Could this truly be the remedy to the ongoing saga or did I just waste your precious time and describe another deal the league would simply shoot down a third time?
All contract information was obtained from www.capgeek.com. You can follow me on Twitter @mluciano26 or e-mail me at fr0z3nf1r326@aol.com.
Why the Devils and Sykora Could Work
I’ve done some major slacking over the past month or so with my write ups but I’ll use the excuse that I was caught up in the hype of summer fun, partying, and being with people I only get to see two months out of the year. Now that Wildwood ‘10 is behind me and I’ve returned home to New York, I’m ready to get the ball rolling again. For the past month and a half or so, any type of news related to the Devils has focused on one player: Ilya Kovalchuk. It isn’t news that the burdenous task of signing him to a long term contract evolved into a somewhat historic saga that’s dragged on well into late August. I’ll let Lou and Kovy’s agent Jay Grossman handle putting this drama to an end and focus on something different to discuss.
Having acquired center Jason Arnott back in June, some Devils fans have entertained the thought of reuniting the infamous A-Line that guided the Devils to a Stanley Cup in 2000 and a second consecutive Stanley Cup Final appearance in 2001. Right wing Petr Sykora is currently an unrestricted free agent, although his playing future in the NHL is uncertain after his past season was shortened to fourteen games due to injury. Last year, Sykora only had two goals, three points, and was minus seven after earning a spot with the Minnesota Wild. Sykora is currently recovering from two surgeries he had during the season and is hopeful to be healthy for the upcoming season. Patrik Elias, Sykora’s former line mate and fellow Czech was quoted saying he’d like to see the Devils at least offer Sykora an opportunity to join the team on a tryout basis. I know a lot of Devils fans have stressed on seeing the team get younger and have been iffy on Lou’s retreads, which is why I don’t think there should be such a strongly dismissive nature on the possibility of seeing Sykora return to New Jersey.
Saying Sykora is washed up is a statement of contrasts. It’s understandable if you base it off his recent playing and health struggles, yet unreasonable when you consider the consistency he’s maintained throughout his career. Sykora isn’t too young or old at thirty-three years of age and before his disastrous stint with Minnesota, scored more than twenty goals every year since the 1998-1999 season. Before playing in Minnesota, Sykora had twenty-eight and twenty-five goals in his two years with Pittsburgh, and twenty-two goals in 2006-2007 with the Oilers. It’s a weak example but this shows Sykora’s ability to remain consistent with his productivity on two different teams that played two different systems with two different player types on their rosters at the time.
Overall, to say someone lost that type of niche after one season is a little extreme in my opinion.
I won’t say it’s a sure thing, but returning to a familiar team, familiar players, and in good health could redeem Sykora’s play to where it was two years ago. I wouldn’t say he’d be a shoe in for thirty plus goals but assuming a Sykora return works out, his contributions won’t go unnoticed. Although it will more than likely be primarily, Sykora gives the Devils a natural top six right wing, a position I at least feel the team lacks in depth. Right now, the only true natural right wings on the team are Jamie Langenbrunner and Vladimir Zharkov. Danius Zubrus hasn’t stuck to a solitary offensive position in his three years with New Jersey, David Clarkson and Brian Rolston seem to prefer and thrive more on left wing, while Elias and Parise are the team’s best two left wings. Langenbrunner is currently the team’s only reliable natural right wing since Zharkov has yet to prove himself. This is where Sykora could bring some degree of positional stability to at least fall back on.
Considering the team’s current cap situation, even if the Devils sign Kovalchuk, I don’t see signing Sykora becoming a huge factor. It would be a low risk/high reward scenario especially if he tries to land a spot on a tryout basis. He’d realistically be signed for no more than a year and less than what he signed for in Minnesota ($1.6 million). Another concern is the team’s abundance of wings and how Sykora’s hypothetical return adds to that and impacts the chances of rookie hopefuls and the significance of their potential roles and ice time. Without Kovalchuk your top six are the A-Line and ZZ Pops, simple as that. There’s room for the remaining wings and a rookie or two, although it’s likely they’d mostly see third/fourth line ice time. Should Kovalchuk return, the Devils obviously have to clear cap space and like I’ve said, a few possible candidates to get shipped out up front are Jamie Langenbrunner, Brian Rolston, and Danius Zubrus. Patrik Elias could be considered although I can’t see Lou or Patrik mutually agreeing on such a move despite the recent rumors. Every mentioned player except Zubrus has some kind of no-movement clause but my figuring is if the right deal comes along and Lou makes it clear he intends on trading a player, I can say in confidence they’ll be elsewhere in some way, shape, or form along with their cap hit. Dumping the salaries of forwards gets the Devils under the cap, adjusts the forward rosters where every player will get a deserving spot, and strengthens the opportunities for rookie hopefuls. In this situation, the addition of Sykora will fit like a glove.
So…What Now for the Devils?
I’ve really been enjoying this off-season solely because it seems there hasn’t been a single dull moment since the 2009-2010 NHL campaign concluded. It’s no new news that the NHL rejected the seventeen-year $102 million contract the New Jersey Devils awarded superstar left wing Ilya Kovalchuk, due to allegations that it doesn’t comply with the current collective bargaining agreement and a high amount of skepticism that Kovalchuk won’t be playing until he’s forty-four, which is how old he’ll be when the deal expires. The Devils have three options: submit a modified contract, let the NHLPA file grievance, or forget the whole thing and let Kovalchuk officially return to the UFA market. In all likeliness, I’m quite confident in saying Kovalchuk will still remain a long term Devil once everything has been settled. Not that I’m frustrated about the league’s rejection of the deal, rather I’m more annoyed that the drama is forcibly being continued.
As of now, the Devil’s current checklist should be as it stands: Settle the Kovalchuk dispute. Once that’s over and done with, refocus on the team’s salary cap situation. Once the team gets the flexibility they need in cap space, secure Zach Parise’s future with the team, which this article from the Star Ledger documented as an acknowledged priority. Lastly, evaluate the team and see if there’s room for additional improvement.
An informative source I have said a few NHL organizations avidly protested and complained about the Kovalchuk contract, the alleged ringleaders being the Los Angeles Kings, Philadelphia Flyers, and a third team believed to be the New York Rangers or Pittsburgh Penguins. I know Glen Sather and Lou Lamoriello are good friends so I’d find it unlikely the Rangers would protest any mega-deal, let alone the Kovalchuk deal, especially when you consider the team’s well-documented history of overpaying players over lengthy periods of time (this is not a shot at the Rangers FYI, although the Ranger’s deals never exceeded seven years).
I digress. Getting back to this new chapter in the Kovalchuk saga, I sympathize the league’s reasons for rejecting the deal, considering the length and how the $102 million is distributed (Kovalchuk will make less than $1 million per in the final six years)…yes, it’s a very front loaded deal and you could counter that by pointing out the numerous other front loaded contracts awarded to players in recent years, but apparently there was something different about this particular contract that gave the NHL reason to disprove it. This could be where the length of the contract comes into play, making it the longest deal in NHL history. Sure Ovechkin signed a thirteen-year deal, but he’ll be thirty-five when it expires. Rick DiPietro will be forty when his fifteen-year deal concludes, and Mike Richards and Marian Hossa will he thirty-five and forty-two when their twelve-year deals expire, respectively. Chris Pronger will be forty-two after his seven-year deal.
Marian Hossa is currently the only player in the NHL that’s currently under contract for more than ten years that expires when he’s over forty. At forty-four it seems unlikely for any athlete to be actively playing in any sport (although you never know what scientific or medical advances the future has in store for us…just saying) and despite the ability to use the likes of Mark Messier, Chris Chelios, Mark Recchi, Gordie Howe, and Igor Larianov as examples, I can’t stress the term “unlikely” enough as those are a handful of players that accomplished the feat out of thousands over the years. If you want to be technical and play a numbers game, Kovalchuk stands less than a one percent chance of playing beyond his early forties.
Fortunately, there are a few solutions to appease all parties involved in this dispute that I’m sure are being explored. The deal can be shortened, resulting in a larger cap hit for the Devils, or they can distribute the annual salaries a little more evenly. You can point out that the league accepted Chris Pronger’s contract with a salary drop-off around $3 million after the deal’s fourth and fifth years and how Pronger only receives $525,000 in the final two years of the deal. He does only receive a salary under $1 million for two years compared to the six Kovalchuk would, not to mention Pronger is thirty-five with his deal going into effect this coming season. Call me on it if I’m wrong, but I believe if Pronger retires, is waived, or brought out, the Flyers still carry his cap hit of $4.9 million, whereas the Devils could waive or buy out (I know there isn’t a chance it would happen considering the deal, but still) Kovalchuk’s contract without having to worry about the full cap hit of around $6 million because he was younger than thirty-five when the deal was signed. If the matter ends up going to court, the Devils and NHLPA seem confident of a favorable ruling. It could turn into a frustratingly long and tedious process, but could end weeks of speculation, drama, and frustration.
Assuming the Devils keep Kovalchuk, he’s going to have an annual cap hit of at least $6 million, exceeding the league’s salary cap limitation. As we all know, the Devils would have to get back under the salary cap before the coming season commences and speculation as to who the likely odd men out would be have already begun. The two most mentioned names and likely candidates to be victimized by salary dumping are forward Danius Zubrus and defenseman Bryce Salvador, who have a combined cap hit of $6.3 million. Zubrus and Salvador respectively have three and two years remaining on their contracts and while both players have been serviceable during their time with the Devils, neither has an NTC or NMC.
Contrary to what people want to believe, the Devils will not lose any significant skill by dumping salary to fit under the cap. Salvador is a solid shutdown defenseman, but doesn’t excel in the position and is ultimately replaceable. With youngsters like Mark Fraser, Anssi Salmela, and rookie hopefuls Matt Corrente, Alexander Urbom, and Tyler Eckford, I see no reason why they can’t replace Salvador and perform just as good if not better for a fraction of the cost. Some fans are hesitant to see Zubrus go because of his valiant playoff performance this past spring and the versatility that’s featured in his game. Zubrus can play any forward position and any role but hasn’t surpassed totals no higher than fifteen goals or forty points in his three years with New Jersey. His numbers can surely be replaced and with a depth chart revived with natural centers and wingers, it could lessen the significance of Zubrus’ ability to play center one night and left wing another.
Two players fans have fantasized about seeing moved are winger Brian Rolston and defenseman Colin White. Both have two years remaining on their deals, Rolston having a painful $5.2 million cap hit, while White’s is $3 million. Rolston has arguably underachieved when you consider his salary and expectations when he was signed, amassing only thirty-five goals in the past one hundred forty-four games he’s played since signing with the Devils, not to mention hasn’t factored much on the power play to the Devil’s benefit. Many argue Colin White hasn’t been the same since sustaining an eye injury that held him out for the beginning of the 2007-2008 season. White seldom fights anymore and isn’t the noticeable physical force, having once been described as another Scott Stevens in the making. Nonetheless, he’s still a sufficient defensive defenseman that could have outgrown his time in New Jersey. Should he end up a cap casualty, the loss won’t be as mournful as it seems, save losing a familiar face that’s been part of the team over a decade. Disposing of the combined $8.2 million in salary would help the Devil’s immensely, not to mention open opportunities for the youth crop on the big team. It’s great to dream, however the nature of the contracts really lessens the possibilities.
Saying the Devils can’t lock up Kovalchuk and Parise is a statement shrouded in ignorance and more so fueled by the want rather than belief of people to not see it happen. If the Detroit Red Wings can lock up Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, and Johan Franzen, I don’t see why the Devils can’t do the same with their core players. Parise stated he was further encouraged to stay with the Devils when they signed Kovalchuk because he was intrigued by playing with one of the game’s premiere stars that he felt could achieve long term success with. If Kovalchuk’s current deal stands, it’ll only be an average cap hit of $6 million per, which I’m sure has frustrated nay sayers that expected the deal to significantly cripple the Devil’s cap situation down the stretch. Parise will likely command an annual salary of at least $6-7 million over a span of six or more years with a cap hit that’ll be similar or identical to Kovalchuk’s. I don’t understand why people automatically assume a combined $12 million plus cap hit between two players will cripple a team down the road. Detroit has $12 million plus tied between Zetterberg and Datsyuk and they’re functioning nicely, the Flyers have the same amount tied between Briere and Timonen, and the Sharks have over $14 million tied between Thornton and Heatley.
The bottom line is you do what you have to in order to lock up your go to guys.
Need I remind my readers between the 2011 and 2013 off-season, the Devils currently have almost $30 million in salary coming off from players that are likely to retire, sign elsewhere, are replaceable, or re-sign for less money than what their current deals pay them. Although it’s stifled him in the past, look at the big picture, step back and think about it…do you really think Lou Lamoriello didn’t know what he was getting himself into before committing to Kovalchuk and likely doing the same (but probably to a lesser degree) for Parise? I think the Devils will be better off than most people think or want to believe as far as their cap situation is concerned.
Lastly, is there room on this team for further improvement? I can say in confidence the Devils are solid up front for the first time in years, but with an unproven Andy Greene as the only offensive force on the blue line, I’m sure the desire for another puck moving defenseman is mutual amongst fans. Cap space will obviously be a factor, but there are options out there. I’ve mentioned Tomas Kaberle, Brent Burns, and Sheldon Souray in previous write ups that bring the offensive skill the defense needs, although each player possesses their own individual catch. With the recent spur of trade rumors surrounding Kevin Bieska, you could assume the Devils have interest since there hasn’t been any public indication (jokingly of course). The only flaws to consider are his health problems as he’s never played a full season and he seems to be on the ice for a lot of goals against. Nonetheless, he’s the productive puck mover the team needs, who can be further disciplined by the team’s tradition of defensive maintenance, and should come at a reasonable price.
I know I rambled a bit and most of this write up featured retreads from past ones and summed up the major topics of recent discussion amongst the Devils community but I hope I at least provided a new angle of insight. I’m assuming the chronology of the events and tasks I mentioned should transpire in that order, starting with the imperative need to bury the hatchet on the Kovalchuk situation once and for all. Like I always say we’ll see what happens and it should be fun to see what the future holds.
Parise is Still the Main Man in New Jersey
Yes…it’s finally over. This is not a false alarm or report but Ilya Kovalchuk has finally signed with a team and that team happens to be the New Jersey Devils. I grew apathetic over the Kovalchuk dilemma that’s dragged on for nearly three weeks now some time ago but am just glad to see it’s finally come to an end. With the contract details yet to be officially released, I’m assuming the deal will put the Devils well over the cap, requiring them to move some players to get back under.
I’m glad Kovy decided to stay with the Devils, although I believe he’d have signed elsewhere before July 1st ended, had his options been broader. Nonetheless, his long term commitment to New Jersey has convinced me he likes what he sees here and thinks he can help return this team to their winning ways and deep playoff runs. He could have signed a one or two-year deal or played in Russia for a year if he had zero desire to return to New Jersey but didn’t. On paper, the Devils are obviously a dangerously deep team but how it pans out remains to be seen. Unlike the fanatics, I won’t commit to the equation that Kovalchuk= Cup just yet. What Kovalchuk re-signing means and brings, the Devil’s cap situation, and all that like is for another write up as I’ve written this to pass one message some Devils fans may have forgotten amidst today’s hype.
Zach Parise is still the main man in New Jersey.
Kovalchuk is arguably a better than Parise and you can build a franchise around either player, but assuming both players are still with the organization in five years, Zach Parise’s name will be the first that comes to mind if someone asked me to name an ideal New Jersey Devil. When Parise broke into the NHL in 2005, he had a promising rookie campaign, despite tallying mediocre numbers of fourteen goals and thirty-two points. He hasn’t scored less than thirty goals since the 2006-2007 season and established himself as a proven offensive force, worthy of consideration amongst the game’s elite players. Numbers aside, Parise symbolizes a new age in New Jersey Devils hockey and a passing of the torch from one franchise face (Brodeur) to the next, just as Scott Stevens did to Marty when he called it a career. When I look at the Devil’s roster, I can’t think of any other player more suitable and prepared to symbolically represent the New Jersey Devils, everything the organization represents, and what they seek out of their players than Zach Parise.
A homegrown star, Parise continues the tradition that started with players such as John MacLean and Ken Daneyko, and continued over the years as fans were privileged to see the likes of Kirk Muller, Scott Niedermayer, Martin Brodeur, Patrik Elias, and Petr Sykora just to name a few, make their mark on Devil’s history and turn the organization from a bottom feeder to an annual contender. While Parise’s yet to have a Stanley Cup ring, he has plenty of years left in him, most of which will hopefully be played in Newark. I also want to say Parise is one of the few “complete players” currently in the NHL, the kind that comes around once every ten plus years or so. He’s someone that gives no less than a full effort every night, scores, sets up, and is effective in all three zones, not to mention has shown flashes of leadership.
Right now I want to say captain Jamie Langenbrunner’s future with the team is uncertain and with a year remaining on the thirty-five year-old’s contract, the New Jersey Devil’s captaincy could be up for grabs for the third time since 2005. The hiring of John MacLean appears to have stabilized the Devil’s coaching situation for now so with that out of the way and assuming Langenbrunner will be or is already exiled from the Devil’s long term plans, I can’t think of anyone more suitable to inherit the captaincy than Parise. I want to say his stint with Team USA this year has indicated he can play effectively when it counts and in high pressure situations…if the rest of his team plays with at least half as much heart as he does. Moving forward, I think Parise also represents two vital things for Devils fans to believe in: The Devils will continue their tradition of annual contention and continual success in different forms and ways after the conclusion of all-time great Martin Brodeur’s career, and they have someone to look upon to spearhead that success as the team’s faces, whose roots go back to the fan entitled “glory days” fade and are replaced by newer younger faces set on achieving the same goals as their predecessors.
Resurrection?
The Devil’s Contributions to a Crazy Week
Have the Gears Started Turning?
The Andy Greene Trial
Defenseman Andy Greene’s path to legitimacy is far from over.
Mottau Over Kovalchuk and Martin?
I hope everyone enjoyed their Memorial Day weekend. I spent mine at the beaches of Wildwood, New Jersey, where I enjoyed the pleasantries of practically receiving sun poisoning, a painful bee sting (one of my biggest fears), almost breaking my nose, and seeing my days start early in the afternoon after spending the mornings recovering from the night before. I was able to catch the first two games of this year’s Stanley Cup Finals between the Chicago Blackhawks and Philadelphia Flyers and have to say they’ve been two of the most exciting games I may have seen all year. Both games had two completely different courses of events with the same outcome, but both games were at the same level of excitement and featured everything an ideal hockey game should have from intense physical play to a stellar display of skill from players on both teams playing all positions. Two games in, you can see why these teams are the final two standing and that they deserve to continue playing at this time of year. Although Chicago is off to a good start, I don’t think this series is close to being over if the first two games are any indication.
As of late, the New Jersey Devils have been one of the more irrelevant teams in the broad spectrum of the hockey world but as a blogger for the team, I’m inclined to focus on an aspect of Devil Land to discuss. As I was making my daily browse through my online news outlets on anything regarding the Devils or that would be of interest in the hockey world, I came across a very unsettling article in the New York Post…it appears the Devils are close to an agreement with one of their pending unrestricted free agents. It isn’t Illya Kovalchuk, it isn’t Paul Martin, but defenseman Mike Mottau…yes…Mike Mottau. To read the article, click here.
In his third season with the Devils, Mottau had two goals, eighteen points, went plus four in seventy-nine games and averaged around eighteen minutes of ice time per game. Mottau, a scapegoat of blame for Devils fans, who many, including myself, felt safe in saying his last time in a Devil’s jersey was game five in which the Philadelphia Flyers handed this team their third consecutive first round playoff exit, sadly finished second in scoring amongst Devil’s defensemen as well. If the reports are accurate and Mottau will return for his fourth season with the Devils, during which he’ll likely continue to be a regular in the lineup and his frustrating partnership with Colin White, a third defensive pairing at best that logs second pairing and sometimes first pairing minutes on a nightly basis, I’m sure the two biggest questions amongst Devils fans are “why?” and “what is Lou thinking?”
Mottau can be described as a general defenseman at best as he doesn’t truly excel in the offensive or defensive aspect of the position. Until he came to New Jersey, who at the time was likely desperate to occupy their roster spots after Lamoriello failed or refused to address his team’s needs and properly replace his summer losses, he spent most of his career as a depth defenseman that made frequent trips to and from the AHL. He made a decent first impression and for some reason stuck with the team three seasons, three first round exits, and two coaches later. If you were to ask Lou, Sutter, or Lemaire to justify why a player such as Mottau has had the role and ice time throughout his time with the Devil’s, they’ll say he’s a depth player that can log heavy minutes…after you finish sighing and rubbing your eyes with your fingers, you should counter that by asking what he specifically does that makes his time on the ice effective and like I just mentioned, why he logs second and first pair minutes when he’s clearly a third pairing defenseman at best. Since the defense has remained stagnant since Rafalski left, I guess Mottau has slipped through the cracks.
The article goes on to explain how Lamoriello and defenseman Paul Martin agreed they won’t initiate contract talks until the Devils hire a coach and if that’s any indication, I won’t expect the Devils to name their next head coach until mid-late July so perhaps Lamoriello is basically implying Martin and the Devils are going their separate ways. What I want to know is why Lou is intent on re-signing an overplayed depth player, while the likes of Paul Martin, Illya Kovalchuk, and David Clarkson remain unsigned. The Devils fans addicted to the kool-aid will excuse this by saying it takes more time and effort to re-sign the more skilled members of the upcoming free agent class or express their alleged disinterest in seeing them return next year at all. What makes me laugh is these same fans will defend Lou’s re-signing of Mottau because of the general fact the move was made…even if they were amongst those that relentlessly bashed him throughout the season and prayed to see him off the team in any way possible.
Mottau returning isn’t the worst thing to happen but I’m more than willing to admit you shouldn’t expect a massive contribution from him that makes a difference. Sure he’s more or less a decent depth player and role players like that win championships but the Devils an unhealthy surplus of those…and just because he’s in Lou’s good graces doesn’t mean you have to automatically discount the countless errors and mishaps he’s made this year let alone throughout his tenure in Jersey. With Mottau likely staying, he occupies a roster spot and possesses a skill level that could easily be replaced with one of the kids in the system or an acquired defenseman via trade or free agency (don’t laugh I’m just being hypothetical) of equal or greater talent. You can counter that by crediting Mottau with having experience but I say if you choose an underachiever over a promising prospect based on NHL experience, it ultimately defeats the purpose of developing the kids because they need NHL experience to prove themselves and adapt to the NHL style of play instead of wasting their youth in the minors, although Lou seems to have made a habit of dealing his prospects away for rental players he won’t re-sign so at least they’re of some remote use to the organization.
If Paul Martin signs elsewhere and Mottau stays, it leaves the Devils with Mike Mottau, Andy Greene, Colin White, and Bryce Salvador as returning defensemen on next year’s squad. Even if Martin returns, there isn’t much room for improvement on a defense that hasn’t been able to get this team out of the first round for three consecutive seasons of which they’ve struggled to finish strongly. I don’t want to hear how well the team played during Martin’s absence because their struggles started in January and Martin returned in mid-March, which didn’t lift the team out of their funk. I’d be very surprised if Lamoriello actually acquires defensemen that improve the blue line; and where does that leave the likes of Mark Fraser and Anssi Salmela, who I thought were solid contributors this year with a lot of potential along with prospects such as Tyler Eckford and Matthew Corrente? We could be in for the same old Devils team that hasn’t gotten past the first round for three years now, which Lamoriello seems content with based on his lack of effort in trying to appropriately improving this team.
To sum everything up, the point of this write up is to figure out why Lamoriello seems quick on keeping players of less quality, effortlessly lets his talented players go when they receive an opportunity to play elsewhere, and does little or nothing to replace the talent voids they leave. Hopefully I’m wrong about my attitude towards the likely re-signing of Mottau. I remember I wasn’t happy when the Devils re-signed Salvador and I think he’s the team’s best defensive defensemen and Andy Greene is turning out alright. The difference with Mottau is three seasons should be a long enough trial to prove how much a player can contribute and how replicable they are. If Lamoriello values a player like Mottau over someone like Kovalchuk or Martin…well it should speak for itself.
Sentiments Vs Necessities
As in every year, the 2010 playoffs have given us nothing but great and exciting hockey and while it’s discouraging to see my New Jersey Devils were amongst this year’s playoff participants that bowed out early, the remaining teams have given us as fans some serious and competitive entertainment. I was in Montreal this past weekend and have to say there’s no other place like it in the world as far as the attitude towards their home team and the sport of hockey goes. The energy and passion those fans have while watching a game is simply astounding and admirable. Having returned to the states yesterday afternoon after a treacherous six hour drive, I feel ready to get back to blogging about what I could in regards to my Devils.
The wounds of suffering a third consecutive first round exit aren’t as painful as they were a few weeks ago, but still persist. With the team’s future, along with general manager Lou Lamoriello’s intentions uncertain going into the off season, a lot of question marks surround this Devils team. Some fans still ask what went wrong and what has to be done to snap the Devils out of this frustratingly discouraging funk that’s seemingly put the team through the same course of events for three straight seasons. When Lou Lamoriello was quoted saying he would be surprised if changes weren’t made to this team, it struck me as very “un-Lou like”, who usually goes by sayings such as “I don’t see the need for many changes” or “I still have a lot of faith in this group of guys”. When Lou says changes, and considering how things went and the events that transpired (just to mention Lou’s jelly jar incident in particular), one has to wonder to what degree of change Lamoriello has in mind.
On a realistic and hopeful level, I would like to see the Devil’s veteran core altered to a significant degree as I’ve expressed my concern that three consecutive first round exits, preceded by unpleasant struggles in the second half of each season is enough indication these guys can’t do what they’ve done in the past together anymore. Although most of the Devil’s long time veterans still have a good number of years left in them, I think it’s time for certain players to move on. Aside from the Detroit Red Wings, I can’t think of any other team that’s had so many players stay for so long, regardless of regular season and playoff success. While there may be some opposing this belief I have, I think it could be their sentimental affections making them reluctant to see these players in another team’s jersey blinding them from the potentially beneficial results of taking necessary actions. Having said that, let’s take a look at this feature group of Devils, whose tenures with the team may be outdated.
Patrik Elias…Elias has been my favorite Devil ever since his breakout season in 1999-2000 and it truly pains me to include him in this group. While his numbers were bleak this year, his season debut was delayed due to surgical recovery and he was sidelined (I forget if it was once or a few times) with injury during the season. Between those lengthy stretches of games and the time it took him to return into form after his return, you have to give the guy a break for his numbers taking a hit. At thirty-four, Elias still has a good number of years left in him and wasn’t all that bad this year with nineteen goals and forty-eight points in fifty-eight games, especially coming off of a season, where he averaged a point per game (78 points in 77 games in 08-09). Having said that, Elias has been questionable in the playoffs the past two years, unable to get a goal this year, and only scored once in last year’s series against the Hurricanes, while going a combined minus three over the past two postseasons. With three years remaining on his contract and a salary well over five million per year, I think Elias can still generate plenty of interest should Lou signal his availability. Elias does have an NTC and while he became the Devils all-time leader in points (currently at 754), records and titles are meaningless if the amounted success can’t translate into the playoffs. In the event the Devils end up signing Kovalchuk, I wouldn’t be surprised if Lou puts Elias on the trade block, who I can see waving his NTC if his destination is a winning team or reputable hockey market.
Jamie Langenbrunner…Ever since Jamie arrived in New Jersey, he’s been a vital core player and fan favorite, looked upon to score clutch goals and make a difference in the playoffs. When considering the type of player Jamie is and what he’s done during his time in New Jersey, the typical fan wouldn’t question his captaincy and despite the hissy fit he threw when Lemaire scratched him for a game towards the end of the season, I think it ultimately showed his eagerness and want to play and contribute on a nightly basis. Like Elias, Langenbrunner still has plenty of gas left in the tank and had a solid follow up season prior to putting up career numbers of twenty-nine goals and sixty-nine points. My decision to put Langenbrunner on this list has nothing to do with his leadership qualities or off ice dramas that I think were blown out of proportion by the media and fanatical fans looking for a focus to put their frustrations and blame on. Like Elias and most of the players I’ll mention, Langs has an NTC and will call the shots on any alternations Lou may have in mind for him. With a year and $2.8 million salary remaining on his contract, it could make Langenbrunner an attractive commodity for teams looking for a veteran top six forward. Having said that, I think Langenbrunner’s scoring output, on-ice, and off-ice role can be replaced by players already on the team and any outside or home grown additions made.
Jay Pandolfo…Ever since he re-signed with the Devils in 2008, Pando’s become the ideal definition of an “overpaid slug”. Over the past two seasons, we’ve seen Pandolfo’s play and role decline to the point, where he’s been excluded from the lineup, even in the playoffs, ending his streak of consecutive postseason appearances that went for ten plus years. Although Pandolfo arguably had a redeeming and encouraging start to the year, he wasn’t the same player since he returned from an arm injury and hasn’t really been the same player in general since he was sidelined for over twenty-five games in the 2007-2008 season. During his prime, he was considered one of the best penalty killers in the league along with longtime line mate John Madden, who parted ways with the Devils last summer. Over the past two seasons, Pandolfo’s only had nine goals and nineteen points in one hundred thirteen games, going a combined minus twenty-two. I’m a firm believer that the career of a defensive forward with minimal offensive ability is shorter than one may originally perceive, especially with one team and if the past two seasons are any indication, especially Pandolfo’s inability to redeem his play under the defensive mentality of Jacques Lemaire, who you can say gave him every opportunity to disprove his critics, I think it’s safe to say it’s time for the Devils to move on with Pandolfo’s memories only. As of now, Jay isn’t really an attractive trade chip and since it’s going to take him four months to recover from his recent shoulder surgery, Lamoriello is unable to buy out the remaining year on his contract, which a few Devils analysts anticipated. Out of everyone on this list, I think Pandolfo has the greatest chance of not returning next year, but how and when he parts ways with the Devils (if it happens) remains to be seen.
Brian Rolston…A lot of Devils fans hated on Brian Rolston since last year and have fantasized about dealing him in blockbuster deals that would bring that top three defenseman or top two center this team’s desperately needed for years. In reality, I think Rolston had a decent year, but receives a salary that doubles his actual worth, a common case many teams have with at least one player. While he’s only played his second full season with the Devils since he was signed as an unrestricted free agent in 2008, I include him on this list for the previous five and a half seasons he played for the team in the mid-late nineties and exploit him as an unfavorable turnout of Lou bringing back former Devils. When Rolston came to New Jersey, he was expected to establish himself as the team’s power play quarterback and substantiate their quality of point men in advantageous situations. In his last year with the Wild, Rolston scored thirty-one goals, but only scored half of that in his first year with the Devils, which some fans (including myself) excused due to his early season injury. You could also argue Brent Sutter exiled him from the top six upon return due to the current state of the team at the time, which resulted in Rolston mostly playing third and fourth line minutes. This year, Rolston reached the twenty goal mark and scored seven times on the power play in a season that was interrupted by a two game injury sideline. With the arrival of Jacques Lemaire, it was also believed he knew how to use Rolston, having coached him during his first stint with the Devils and the entire time he was in Minnesota, but ultimately got no better than a notch than what Sutter got out of him. Rolston also hasn’t been much of a playoff factor with Jersey, at least not much of a game changer. With two years and $10.4 million remaining on his contract, his recent seasonal output, and his NTC, it makes Rolston a fairly unlikely commodity for Lou to move, an evident fact that’s ultimately been accepted by most fans. Rolston was thirty-five when he signed with the Devils so even if Lou waives him, his salary still counts against the cap and buying him out wouldn’t do much justice either. As much as I’m sure most fans would love to see Rolston play for another team next year, it appears he’s one player this team is simply stuck with.
Paul Martin…slated to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1st, I question how essential it really is to see him back next year. While his departure will further weaken the blue line, he could free up cap space and would create room for one of the kids to take on a full time role or to hopefully acquire that top pairing defenseman this team’s cried for since Brian Rafalski left. I think it’s safe to say over the past three seasons, we’ve seen Paul Martin at his best and I think it’s clear he lacks the necessary skill to be entitled a top defenseman. You can make all the excuses you want, but the facts stand…ever since Martin became the blue line’s top guy, it started the Devil’s recent trends of second half struggles in the regular season and early playoff dismissals. I’m not saying it’s entirely on the defense, but to say Paul Martin is your best defenseman certainly plays a significant factor. I also think Martin plays his best hockey without the pressure of being looked upon as the blue line’s greatest threat, as he put up career numbers of five goals and thirty-seven points in 2006-2007 as an example. Sure Martin is a solid contributor, plays a sound defensive game, and can log heavy minutes, but I think the past three seasons proved he needs at least one other top defenseman of equal or higher play quality to play with to take at least some of the pressure off him. Overall, I believe Lou’s Paul Martin experiment didn’t turn out as well we he’d hoped and unless Martin takes a pay cut, I think it’d be in Lou’s best interest to have Andy Greene replace Martin on the skill chart, while getting a player or two that can surpass him on it as well.
Colin White…White won’t be going anywhere unless Lou buys the final two years of his contract out or waives him, which he won’t do out of respect for one of his long time veterans. You can say Colin White is a “Lou-type” player and was rewarded for it in 2006 when he signed a six-year $18 million extension. For the better part of his career, I thought Colin White was a serviceable stay at home defenseman that fulfilled the requirements and expectations of his job until he received that eye injury at the beginning of the 2007-2008 season. He hasn’t been the same player ever since and has been scrutinized by Devils fans. A player like White, a mediocre defensive defenseman is generally recyclable and like defensive forwards, I think stay at home defenseman of White’s skill level should appropriately have short tenures with one team, let alone a general career. Colin White doesn’t do much fighting anymore, so don’t get excited about the forty-six penalty minutes he had this year and while his flaws and mishaps have been well documented over the past few seasons, he’s still a formidable force in the corners and front of the net…when his positioning is on track, but I think he lacks the energy he used to have when he was younger. You can say Mark Fraser, who outscored white this year by a goal, while manning significantly less ice time and appeared in less games could make a sufficient successor with more to offer.
Martin Brodeur…Yes, yes I know as long as the sky is blue and water is wet, Lamoriello won’t even entertain the thought of putting Brodeur in a situation, where he wouldn’t be back next year, although it could morally be the right thing to do for this team. You could argue the struggles the team endured throughout the second half of the season weren’t entirely Brodeur’s fault, but his average at best play remained constant, even with a lengthy rest period the Olympic Break gave him, where his struggles seemed to follow him and cost him the starting goaltending position for Team Canada. In the end, Marty got his seventy-plus games and forty-plus wins in, although his numbers were a notch or two lower than usual, he got his Vezina nomination and left his mark in this year’s goaltending statistics departments, while breaking a few more records, which seems to only be what matters to Brodeur at this stage in his career. Lemaire and Lamoriello can say how Marty wasn’t meant to play this much and throw as many excuses as fans convinced he’s still one of the best in today’s game will use to defend him, but the fact of the matter is, Marty’s proved once again he can’t maintain such a heavy regular season workload and take the pace and pressure of the playoffs anymore, which he and the team overlooked and ended up factoring in the Devil’s third consecutive first round exit…I won’t even get into how he was outplayed by a third string goalie. There is a possibility the Devils may go through a seasonal cycle of mediocrity as long as Brodeur’s still playing, who obviously has more say in what he does than any Devils coach. While it’s unlikely we’ll see Marty ever play anywhere but New Jersey, his alleged stubbornness is something Lamoriello has to figure a way to work around if he’s keen on salvaging the closing window of opportunity to get Marty one last cup before he calls it a career.
I’m going to try and get a Devil’s off-season write up posted by the end of the week. Overall, It’s clear Lamoriello has a lot on his plate this off-season, between hiring a new coach, and what changes he feels need to be done, whether they’ll keep the Devils in contention or cause them to take a step back for a season or two. Whatever the case, I’m hoping (because you never expect anything when you’re a fan of a Lou Lamoriello team) for an eventful off-season in New Jersey, at least more eventful than usual.
