The Magic Deal
You really can’t make this sh*t up…Numerous reports have been circulating around the Internet that the league rejected the Devil’s most recent contract proposal to sign premiere left wing Ilya Kovalchuk over two weeks after the initial seventeen-year deal was rejected by arbitrator Richard Bloch. Reports are saying the length of the most recently proposed deal was anywhere from 10-15 years. Others indicate this was not the first deal the league has rejected. Since league representatives and the Devils have remained mum on the entire situation, we as fans can only speculate on what’s really going on behind the scenes and why this treacherous saga has continued as long as it has with its end seemingly shrouded in more mystery than the truth behind the Roswell crash or existence of Bigfoot and the Loch Ness Monster.
To speculate, one has to ask why a deal can’t be worked out that mutually satisfies both parties (Devils/Kovalchuk, NHL). Is it because The Devils or league are being too stubborn? Is the league on a witch hunt for the Devils? Does Gary Bettman want Kovalchuk to play on a team with a larger hockey market, if he wants to have Kovalchuk, let alone the game’s premiere talents in the league at all? Has the league finally had enough of what are being called “front loaded” contracts that stretch over a period of time? Most of these possibilities are more than likely to be untrue and are beliefs or conspiracy theories frustrated Devils fans developed in the heat of rage.
The origins behind Part II of the Kovalchuk Saga go back to the initial seventeen-year deal. Although I may have said else wise whether it was on Facebook, Twitter, or in previous write ups, I regret to admit the league and Richard Bloch’s decision to reject the deal was justified. Although the Devils likely meant well when the deal was signed, the contract was a definitively front loaded deal. Now with reports that the league has rejected framework of proposed deals by the Devils subsequent to the first one, the universal question amongst Devils fans and possibly hockey fans in general is what the framework of this “magic deal” ought to be.
The first and easiest part is determining the length. To sum it up, seventeen years was ridiculous and the Devils clearly chose that number to ably give Kovalchuk the $100 million he wanted, while having a manageable cap hit throughout its duration. Although nobody can say Kovalchuk won’t play until he’s forty-four, his age when the initial deal were to expire, I stated in a previous write up the statistical probability behind him playing at that age is less than one percent. You can argue from various standpoints why the initial deal shouldn’t have been rejected but it was and now it’s time to move on. I see no reason why the Devils can’t award Kovalchuk a career contract the league won’t have any issue with. 12-13 years is reasonable, and is about the average length of every long term contract that’s more than ten years. Kovalchuk will be 39-40 when the deal expires and there are plenty of people that have and still play at that age so I don’t want to hear the league whine about any uncertainties of that nature.
The biggest obstacle that’s kept the Kovalchuk Saga afloat is how to properly distribute the salary. If past reports are correct, the framework of the most recent deal the league shot down distributed $84-91 million over ten plus years. Whether Kovalchuk lowered his asking price, bonuses were involved, or the deal offered a sum of money up front (like what the Rangers did when they attempted to sign Joe Sakic in 1997, although that could be literal front loading so call me on it if that’s the case), the deal wasn’t valid in the league’s eyes. One thing we could use to reach a compromise are the contracts of Vancouver’s Roberto Luongo, Chicago’s Marian Hossa, Philadelphia’s Chris Pronger, and Boston’s Marc Savard, all of which are currently being “investigated” by the league. Despite these ongoing investigations, It’s my opinion the league used the Devils as an example in rejecting a legitimate front loaded contract and are using these contract investigations as a method of intimidation to at least make teams think twice about signing players to similar long term deals. If the contracts were approved in the past, why not use them as guidelines to work out a deal for Kovalchuk?
The key is in the numbers and percentages of these contracts and how they differ from the numbers that pieced together the rejected seventeen-year deal. Marian Hossa’s twelve-year contract pays him $63 million. He receives 87% of the $63 million in the first seven years of the deal, which makes up 58% of the contract’s term length. Chris Pronger’s seven-year deal pays him $31.2 million. He receives 97% of the $31.2 million after the first five years, after which 71% of the contract’s term length has been completed. Marc Savard’s seven-year contract pays him $28 million. After the first four years, he receives 91% of the $28 million, after which 57% of the contract’s term length has been completed. Roberto Luongo receives $64 million over twelve years. After eight years, he receives 89% of the $64 million, after which 66% of the contract’s term length has been completed. In Ilya Kovalchuk’s seventeen-year contract, where he would have received $102 million, he would have earned 93% of the $102 million in the first ten years after completing only 58% of the contract’s term length. Before the annual salaries drop to under $2 million in the contracts of the four players I mentioned, the average percentage of money that was paid off amongst the four players is 91% with an average of 63% of the contracts term lengths having passed. If you apply the average percentages of paid off salary and years completed in Kovalchuk’s rejected seventeen-year deal, he’d have received $92 million after the first 10-11 years, leaving $10 million to be distributed over the final 6-7 years.
In terms of percentages, could 91% in relation to salary distribution and 63% in relation to completed term length be the magic numbers? Although these numbers were averaged out of contracts that are “under investigation” in the event the Devils work out a deal based off these terms, it would be unreasonable for the league to reject the contract because the salary distribution over the period of years is within the bounds of contracts being investigated, which were previously approved by the league, and are still valid deals, which is something the Devils and NHLPA could use as leverage in the event of a second arbitration hearing, which at this point I believe would only happen in a case of extremes.
Getting back to what I was saying earlier, 12-13 years could be the length to shoot for. If Kovalchuk did indeed lower his asking price between $84-91 million (we’ll use $87 million over thirteen years in this hypothetical situation), he’ll receive $79 million after the first eight years of the contract, leaving $8 million to be distributed over the final five years, which averages out to about $1.6 million per. It would give Kovalchuk a $6.7 million cap hit per season, only $700K more than the cap hit in the seventeen-year deal. I’m not one to speculate, but if I were to distribute the $87 million salary over thirteen years based on the “magic terms” I described above, I would structure it as follows:
2010-2011: $9.4 million
2011-2012: $10.7 million
2012-2013: $11.7 million
2013-2014: $11.7 million
2014-2015: $11.5 million
2015-2016: $10.5 million
2016-2017: $8 million
2017-2018: $5.5 million
2018-2019: $3 million
2019-2020: $2 million
2020-2021: $1 million
2021-2022: $1 million
2022-2023: $1 million
At first sight, the deal does appear front loaded but I made sure to put in some distinguishable differences from the contracts I mentioned above. Although Kovalchuk’s highest annual payment would earn him $11.7 million, note the greatest fluctuation on a year-to-year basis throughout the deal is $2.5 million, compared to fluctuations that exceed $3 million in the other deals. Kovalchuk also receives a salary under $2 million in the final three years, which is the average number of years the players of the four other contracts I used earn salaries under $2 million. I would also give Kovalchuk an NMC and NTC that remains active throughout most or the entire contract, giving him the final call in the event he or the Devils look into moving him. I wouldn’t call it the perfect contract, but based on the numbers I’ve accumulated, could be the magic terms the Devils and NHL could agree upon to end this treacherous drama. Could this truly be the remedy to the ongoing saga or did I just waste your precious time and describe another deal the league would simply shoot down a third time?
All contract information was obtained from www.capgeek.com. You can follow me on Twitter @mluciano26 or e-mail me at fr0z3nf1r326@aol.com.
Why the Devils and Sykora Could Work
I’ve done some major slacking over the past month or so with my write ups but I’ll use the excuse that I was caught up in the hype of summer fun, partying, and being with people I only get to see two months out of the year. Now that Wildwood ‘10 is behind me and I’ve returned home to New York, I’m ready to get the ball rolling again. For the past month and a half or so, any type of news related to the Devils has focused on one player: Ilya Kovalchuk. It isn’t news that the burdenous task of signing him to a long term contract evolved into a somewhat historic saga that’s dragged on well into late August. I’ll let Lou and Kovy’s agent Jay Grossman handle putting this drama to an end and focus on something different to discuss.
Having acquired center Jason Arnott back in June, some Devils fans have entertained the thought of reuniting the infamous A-Line that guided the Devils to a Stanley Cup in 2000 and a second consecutive Stanley Cup Final appearance in 2001. Right wing Petr Sykora is currently an unrestricted free agent, although his playing future in the NHL is uncertain after his past season was shortened to fourteen games due to injury. Last year, Sykora only had two goals, three points, and was minus seven after earning a spot with the Minnesota Wild. Sykora is currently recovering from two surgeries he had during the season and is hopeful to be healthy for the upcoming season. Patrik Elias, Sykora’s former line mate and fellow Czech was quoted saying he’d like to see the Devils at least offer Sykora an opportunity to join the team on a tryout basis. I know a lot of Devils fans have stressed on seeing the team get younger and have been iffy on Lou’s retreads, which is why I don’t think there should be such a strongly dismissive nature on the possibility of seeing Sykora return to New Jersey.
Saying Sykora is washed up is a statement of contrasts. It’s understandable if you base it off his recent playing and health struggles, yet unreasonable when you consider the consistency he’s maintained throughout his career. Sykora isn’t too young or old at thirty-three years of age and before his disastrous stint with Minnesota, scored more than twenty goals every year since the 1998-1999 season. Before playing in Minnesota, Sykora had twenty-eight and twenty-five goals in his two years with Pittsburgh, and twenty-two goals in 2006-2007 with the Oilers. It’s a weak example but this shows Sykora’s ability to remain consistent with his productivity on two different teams that played two different systems with two different player types on their rosters at the time.
Overall, to say someone lost that type of niche after one season is a little extreme in my opinion.
I won’t say it’s a sure thing, but returning to a familiar team, familiar players, and in good health could redeem Sykora’s play to where it was two years ago. I wouldn’t say he’d be a shoe in for thirty plus goals but assuming a Sykora return works out, his contributions won’t go unnoticed. Although it will more than likely be primarily, Sykora gives the Devils a natural top six right wing, a position I at least feel the team lacks in depth. Right now, the only true natural right wings on the team are Jamie Langenbrunner and Vladimir Zharkov. Danius Zubrus hasn’t stuck to a solitary offensive position in his three years with New Jersey, David Clarkson and Brian Rolston seem to prefer and thrive more on left wing, while Elias and Parise are the team’s best two left wings. Langenbrunner is currently the team’s only reliable natural right wing since Zharkov has yet to prove himself. This is where Sykora could bring some degree of positional stability to at least fall back on.
Considering the team’s current cap situation, even if the Devils sign Kovalchuk, I don’t see signing Sykora becoming a huge factor. It would be a low risk/high reward scenario especially if he tries to land a spot on a tryout basis. He’d realistically be signed for no more than a year and less than what he signed for in Minnesota ($1.6 million). Another concern is the team’s abundance of wings and how Sykora’s hypothetical return adds to that and impacts the chances of rookie hopefuls and the significance of their potential roles and ice time. Without Kovalchuk your top six are the A-Line and ZZ Pops, simple as that. There’s room for the remaining wings and a rookie or two, although it’s likely they’d mostly see third/fourth line ice time. Should Kovalchuk return, the Devils obviously have to clear cap space and like I’ve said, a few possible candidates to get shipped out up front are Jamie Langenbrunner, Brian Rolston, and Danius Zubrus. Patrik Elias could be considered although I can’t see Lou or Patrik mutually agreeing on such a move despite the recent rumors. Every mentioned player except Zubrus has some kind of no-movement clause but my figuring is if the right deal comes along and Lou makes it clear he intends on trading a player, I can say in confidence they’ll be elsewhere in some way, shape, or form along with their cap hit. Dumping the salaries of forwards gets the Devils under the cap, adjusts the forward rosters where every player will get a deserving spot, and strengthens the opportunities for rookie hopefuls. In this situation, the addition of Sykora will fit like a glove.
So…What Now for the Devils?
I’ve really been enjoying this off-season solely because it seems there hasn’t been a single dull moment since the 2009-2010 NHL campaign concluded. It’s no new news that the NHL rejected the seventeen-year $102 million contract the New Jersey Devils awarded superstar left wing Ilya Kovalchuk, due to allegations that it doesn’t comply with the current collective bargaining agreement and a high amount of skepticism that Kovalchuk won’t be playing until he’s forty-four, which is how old he’ll be when the deal expires. The Devils have three options: submit a modified contract, let the NHLPA file grievance, or forget the whole thing and let Kovalchuk officially return to the UFA market. In all likeliness, I’m quite confident in saying Kovalchuk will still remain a long term Devil once everything has been settled. Not that I’m frustrated about the league’s rejection of the deal, rather I’m more annoyed that the drama is forcibly being continued.
As of now, the Devil’s current checklist should be as it stands: Settle the Kovalchuk dispute. Once that’s over and done with, refocus on the team’s salary cap situation. Once the team gets the flexibility they need in cap space, secure Zach Parise’s future with the team, which this article from the Star Ledger documented as an acknowledged priority. Lastly, evaluate the team and see if there’s room for additional improvement.
An informative source I have said a few NHL organizations avidly protested and complained about the Kovalchuk contract, the alleged ringleaders being the Los Angeles Kings, Philadelphia Flyers, and a third team believed to be the New York Rangers or Pittsburgh Penguins. I know Glen Sather and Lou Lamoriello are good friends so I’d find it unlikely the Rangers would protest any mega-deal, let alone the Kovalchuk deal, especially when you consider the team’s well-documented history of overpaying players over lengthy periods of time (this is not a shot at the Rangers FYI, although the Ranger’s deals never exceeded seven years).
I digress. Getting back to this new chapter in the Kovalchuk saga, I sympathize the league’s reasons for rejecting the deal, considering the length and how the $102 million is distributed (Kovalchuk will make less than $1 million per in the final six years)…yes, it’s a very front loaded deal and you could counter that by pointing out the numerous other front loaded contracts awarded to players in recent years, but apparently there was something different about this particular contract that gave the NHL reason to disprove it. This could be where the length of the contract comes into play, making it the longest deal in NHL history. Sure Ovechkin signed a thirteen-year deal, but he’ll be thirty-five when it expires. Rick DiPietro will be forty when his fifteen-year deal concludes, and Mike Richards and Marian Hossa will he thirty-five and forty-two when their twelve-year deals expire, respectively. Chris Pronger will be forty-two after his seven-year deal.
Marian Hossa is currently the only player in the NHL that’s currently under contract for more than ten years that expires when he’s over forty. At forty-four it seems unlikely for any athlete to be actively playing in any sport (although you never know what scientific or medical advances the future has in store for us…just saying) and despite the ability to use the likes of Mark Messier, Chris Chelios, Mark Recchi, Gordie Howe, and Igor Larianov as examples, I can’t stress the term “unlikely” enough as those are a handful of players that accomplished the feat out of thousands over the years. If you want to be technical and play a numbers game, Kovalchuk stands less than a one percent chance of playing beyond his early forties.
Fortunately, there are a few solutions to appease all parties involved in this dispute that I’m sure are being explored. The deal can be shortened, resulting in a larger cap hit for the Devils, or they can distribute the annual salaries a little more evenly. You can point out that the league accepted Chris Pronger’s contract with a salary drop-off around $3 million after the deal’s fourth and fifth years and how Pronger only receives $525,000 in the final two years of the deal. He does only receive a salary under $1 million for two years compared to the six Kovalchuk would, not to mention Pronger is thirty-five with his deal going into effect this coming season. Call me on it if I’m wrong, but I believe if Pronger retires, is waived, or brought out, the Flyers still carry his cap hit of $4.9 million, whereas the Devils could waive or buy out (I know there isn’t a chance it would happen considering the deal, but still) Kovalchuk’s contract without having to worry about the full cap hit of around $6 million because he was younger than thirty-five when the deal was signed. If the matter ends up going to court, the Devils and NHLPA seem confident of a favorable ruling. It could turn into a frustratingly long and tedious process, but could end weeks of speculation, drama, and frustration.
Assuming the Devils keep Kovalchuk, he’s going to have an annual cap hit of at least $6 million, exceeding the league’s salary cap limitation. As we all know, the Devils would have to get back under the salary cap before the coming season commences and speculation as to who the likely odd men out would be have already begun. The two most mentioned names and likely candidates to be victimized by salary dumping are forward Danius Zubrus and defenseman Bryce Salvador, who have a combined cap hit of $6.3 million. Zubrus and Salvador respectively have three and two years remaining on their contracts and while both players have been serviceable during their time with the Devils, neither has an NTC or NMC.
Contrary to what people want to believe, the Devils will not lose any significant skill by dumping salary to fit under the cap. Salvador is a solid shutdown defenseman, but doesn’t excel in the position and is ultimately replaceable. With youngsters like Mark Fraser, Anssi Salmela, and rookie hopefuls Matt Corrente, Alexander Urbom, and Tyler Eckford, I see no reason why they can’t replace Salvador and perform just as good if not better for a fraction of the cost. Some fans are hesitant to see Zubrus go because of his valiant playoff performance this past spring and the versatility that’s featured in his game. Zubrus can play any forward position and any role but hasn’t surpassed totals no higher than fifteen goals or forty points in his three years with New Jersey. His numbers can surely be replaced and with a depth chart revived with natural centers and wingers, it could lessen the significance of Zubrus’ ability to play center one night and left wing another.
Two players fans have fantasized about seeing moved are winger Brian Rolston and defenseman Colin White. Both have two years remaining on their deals, Rolston having a painful $5.2 million cap hit, while White’s is $3 million. Rolston has arguably underachieved when you consider his salary and expectations when he was signed, amassing only thirty-five goals in the past one hundred forty-four games he’s played since signing with the Devils, not to mention hasn’t factored much on the power play to the Devil’s benefit. Many argue Colin White hasn’t been the same since sustaining an eye injury that held him out for the beginning of the 2007-2008 season. White seldom fights anymore and isn’t the noticeable physical force, having once been described as another Scott Stevens in the making. Nonetheless, he’s still a sufficient defensive defenseman that could have outgrown his time in New Jersey. Should he end up a cap casualty, the loss won’t be as mournful as it seems, save losing a familiar face that’s been part of the team over a decade. Disposing of the combined $8.2 million in salary would help the Devil’s immensely, not to mention open opportunities for the youth crop on the big team. It’s great to dream, however the nature of the contracts really lessens the possibilities.
Saying the Devils can’t lock up Kovalchuk and Parise is a statement shrouded in ignorance and more so fueled by the want rather than belief of people to not see it happen. If the Detroit Red Wings can lock up Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, and Johan Franzen, I don’t see why the Devils can’t do the same with their core players. Parise stated he was further encouraged to stay with the Devils when they signed Kovalchuk because he was intrigued by playing with one of the game’s premiere stars that he felt could achieve long term success with. If Kovalchuk’s current deal stands, it’ll only be an average cap hit of $6 million per, which I’m sure has frustrated nay sayers that expected the deal to significantly cripple the Devil’s cap situation down the stretch. Parise will likely command an annual salary of at least $6-7 million over a span of six or more years with a cap hit that’ll be similar or identical to Kovalchuk’s. I don’t understand why people automatically assume a combined $12 million plus cap hit between two players will cripple a team down the road. Detroit has $12 million plus tied between Zetterberg and Datsyuk and they’re functioning nicely, the Flyers have the same amount tied between Briere and Timonen, and the Sharks have over $14 million tied between Thornton and Heatley.
The bottom line is you do what you have to in order to lock up your go to guys.
Need I remind my readers between the 2011 and 2013 off-season, the Devils currently have almost $30 million in salary coming off from players that are likely to retire, sign elsewhere, are replaceable, or re-sign for less money than what their current deals pay them. Although it’s stifled him in the past, look at the big picture, step back and think about it…do you really think Lou Lamoriello didn’t know what he was getting himself into before committing to Kovalchuk and likely doing the same (but probably to a lesser degree) for Parise? I think the Devils will be better off than most people think or want to believe as far as their cap situation is concerned.
Lastly, is there room on this team for further improvement? I can say in confidence the Devils are solid up front for the first time in years, but with an unproven Andy Greene as the only offensive force on the blue line, I’m sure the desire for another puck moving defenseman is mutual amongst fans. Cap space will obviously be a factor, but there are options out there. I’ve mentioned Tomas Kaberle, Brent Burns, and Sheldon Souray in previous write ups that bring the offensive skill the defense needs, although each player possesses their own individual catch. With the recent spur of trade rumors surrounding Kevin Bieska, you could assume the Devils have interest since there hasn’t been any public indication (jokingly of course). The only flaws to consider are his health problems as he’s never played a full season and he seems to be on the ice for a lot of goals against. Nonetheless, he’s the productive puck mover the team needs, who can be further disciplined by the team’s tradition of defensive maintenance, and should come at a reasonable price.
I know I rambled a bit and most of this write up featured retreads from past ones and summed up the major topics of recent discussion amongst the Devils community but I hope I at least provided a new angle of insight. I’m assuming the chronology of the events and tasks I mentioned should transpire in that order, starting with the imperative need to bury the hatchet on the Kovalchuk situation once and for all. Like I always say we’ll see what happens and it should be fun to see what the future holds.
Resurrection?
The Andy Greene Trial
Defenseman Andy Greene’s path to legitimacy is far from over.
Sentiments Vs Necessities
As in every year, the 2010 playoffs have given us nothing but great and exciting hockey and while it’s discouraging to see my New Jersey Devils were amongst this year’s playoff participants that bowed out early, the remaining teams have given us as fans some serious and competitive entertainment. I was in Montreal this past weekend and have to say there’s no other place like it in the world as far as the attitude towards their home team and the sport of hockey goes. The energy and passion those fans have while watching a game is simply astounding and admirable. Having returned to the states yesterday afternoon after a treacherous six hour drive, I feel ready to get back to blogging about what I could in regards to my Devils.
The wounds of suffering a third consecutive first round exit aren’t as painful as they were a few weeks ago, but still persist. With the team’s future, along with general manager Lou Lamoriello’s intentions uncertain going into the off season, a lot of question marks surround this Devils team. Some fans still ask what went wrong and what has to be done to snap the Devils out of this frustratingly discouraging funk that’s seemingly put the team through the same course of events for three straight seasons. When Lou Lamoriello was quoted saying he would be surprised if changes weren’t made to this team, it struck me as very “un-Lou like”, who usually goes by sayings such as “I don’t see the need for many changes” or “I still have a lot of faith in this group of guys”. When Lou says changes, and considering how things went and the events that transpired (just to mention Lou’s jelly jar incident in particular), one has to wonder to what degree of change Lamoriello has in mind.
On a realistic and hopeful level, I would like to see the Devil’s veteran core altered to a significant degree as I’ve expressed my concern that three consecutive first round exits, preceded by unpleasant struggles in the second half of each season is enough indication these guys can’t do what they’ve done in the past together anymore. Although most of the Devil’s long time veterans still have a good number of years left in them, I think it’s time for certain players to move on. Aside from the Detroit Red Wings, I can’t think of any other team that’s had so many players stay for so long, regardless of regular season and playoff success. While there may be some opposing this belief I have, I think it could be their sentimental affections making them reluctant to see these players in another team’s jersey blinding them from the potentially beneficial results of taking necessary actions. Having said that, let’s take a look at this feature group of Devils, whose tenures with the team may be outdated.
Patrik Elias…Elias has been my favorite Devil ever since his breakout season in 1999-2000 and it truly pains me to include him in this group. While his numbers were bleak this year, his season debut was delayed due to surgical recovery and he was sidelined (I forget if it was once or a few times) with injury during the season. Between those lengthy stretches of games and the time it took him to return into form after his return, you have to give the guy a break for his numbers taking a hit. At thirty-four, Elias still has a good number of years left in him and wasn’t all that bad this year with nineteen goals and forty-eight points in fifty-eight games, especially coming off of a season, where he averaged a point per game (78 points in 77 games in 08-09). Having said that, Elias has been questionable in the playoffs the past two years, unable to get a goal this year, and only scored once in last year’s series against the Hurricanes, while going a combined minus three over the past two postseasons. With three years remaining on his contract and a salary well over five million per year, I think Elias can still generate plenty of interest should Lou signal his availability. Elias does have an NTC and while he became the Devils all-time leader in points (currently at 754), records and titles are meaningless if the amounted success can’t translate into the playoffs. In the event the Devils end up signing Kovalchuk, I wouldn’t be surprised if Lou puts Elias on the trade block, who I can see waving his NTC if his destination is a winning team or reputable hockey market.
Jamie Langenbrunner…Ever since Jamie arrived in New Jersey, he’s been a vital core player and fan favorite, looked upon to score clutch goals and make a difference in the playoffs. When considering the type of player Jamie is and what he’s done during his time in New Jersey, the typical fan wouldn’t question his captaincy and despite the hissy fit he threw when Lemaire scratched him for a game towards the end of the season, I think it ultimately showed his eagerness and want to play and contribute on a nightly basis. Like Elias, Langenbrunner still has plenty of gas left in the tank and had a solid follow up season prior to putting up career numbers of twenty-nine goals and sixty-nine points. My decision to put Langenbrunner on this list has nothing to do with his leadership qualities or off ice dramas that I think were blown out of proportion by the media and fanatical fans looking for a focus to put their frustrations and blame on. Like Elias and most of the players I’ll mention, Langs has an NTC and will call the shots on any alternations Lou may have in mind for him. With a year and $2.8 million salary remaining on his contract, it could make Langenbrunner an attractive commodity for teams looking for a veteran top six forward. Having said that, I think Langenbrunner’s scoring output, on-ice, and off-ice role can be replaced by players already on the team and any outside or home grown additions made.
Jay Pandolfo…Ever since he re-signed with the Devils in 2008, Pando’s become the ideal definition of an “overpaid slug”. Over the past two seasons, we’ve seen Pandolfo’s play and role decline to the point, where he’s been excluded from the lineup, even in the playoffs, ending his streak of consecutive postseason appearances that went for ten plus years. Although Pandolfo arguably had a redeeming and encouraging start to the year, he wasn’t the same player since he returned from an arm injury and hasn’t really been the same player in general since he was sidelined for over twenty-five games in the 2007-2008 season. During his prime, he was considered one of the best penalty killers in the league along with longtime line mate John Madden, who parted ways with the Devils last summer. Over the past two seasons, Pandolfo’s only had nine goals and nineteen points in one hundred thirteen games, going a combined minus twenty-two. I’m a firm believer that the career of a defensive forward with minimal offensive ability is shorter than one may originally perceive, especially with one team and if the past two seasons are any indication, especially Pandolfo’s inability to redeem his play under the defensive mentality of Jacques Lemaire, who you can say gave him every opportunity to disprove his critics, I think it’s safe to say it’s time for the Devils to move on with Pandolfo’s memories only. As of now, Jay isn’t really an attractive trade chip and since it’s going to take him four months to recover from his recent shoulder surgery, Lamoriello is unable to buy out the remaining year on his contract, which a few Devils analysts anticipated. Out of everyone on this list, I think Pandolfo has the greatest chance of not returning next year, but how and when he parts ways with the Devils (if it happens) remains to be seen.
Brian Rolston…A lot of Devils fans hated on Brian Rolston since last year and have fantasized about dealing him in blockbuster deals that would bring that top three defenseman or top two center this team’s desperately needed for years. In reality, I think Rolston had a decent year, but receives a salary that doubles his actual worth, a common case many teams have with at least one player. While he’s only played his second full season with the Devils since he was signed as an unrestricted free agent in 2008, I include him on this list for the previous five and a half seasons he played for the team in the mid-late nineties and exploit him as an unfavorable turnout of Lou bringing back former Devils. When Rolston came to New Jersey, he was expected to establish himself as the team’s power play quarterback and substantiate their quality of point men in advantageous situations. In his last year with the Wild, Rolston scored thirty-one goals, but only scored half of that in his first year with the Devils, which some fans (including myself) excused due to his early season injury. You could also argue Brent Sutter exiled him from the top six upon return due to the current state of the team at the time, which resulted in Rolston mostly playing third and fourth line minutes. This year, Rolston reached the twenty goal mark and scored seven times on the power play in a season that was interrupted by a two game injury sideline. With the arrival of Jacques Lemaire, it was also believed he knew how to use Rolston, having coached him during his first stint with the Devils and the entire time he was in Minnesota, but ultimately got no better than a notch than what Sutter got out of him. Rolston also hasn’t been much of a playoff factor with Jersey, at least not much of a game changer. With two years and $10.4 million remaining on his contract, his recent seasonal output, and his NTC, it makes Rolston a fairly unlikely commodity for Lou to move, an evident fact that’s ultimately been accepted by most fans. Rolston was thirty-five when he signed with the Devils so even if Lou waives him, his salary still counts against the cap and buying him out wouldn’t do much justice either. As much as I’m sure most fans would love to see Rolston play for another team next year, it appears he’s one player this team is simply stuck with.
Paul Martin…slated to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1st, I question how essential it really is to see him back next year. While his departure will further weaken the blue line, he could free up cap space and would create room for one of the kids to take on a full time role or to hopefully acquire that top pairing defenseman this team’s cried for since Brian Rafalski left. I think it’s safe to say over the past three seasons, we’ve seen Paul Martin at his best and I think it’s clear he lacks the necessary skill to be entitled a top defenseman. You can make all the excuses you want, but the facts stand…ever since Martin became the blue line’s top guy, it started the Devil’s recent trends of second half struggles in the regular season and early playoff dismissals. I’m not saying it’s entirely on the defense, but to say Paul Martin is your best defenseman certainly plays a significant factor. I also think Martin plays his best hockey without the pressure of being looked upon as the blue line’s greatest threat, as he put up career numbers of five goals and thirty-seven points in 2006-2007 as an example. Sure Martin is a solid contributor, plays a sound defensive game, and can log heavy minutes, but I think the past three seasons proved he needs at least one other top defenseman of equal or higher play quality to play with to take at least some of the pressure off him. Overall, I believe Lou’s Paul Martin experiment didn’t turn out as well we he’d hoped and unless Martin takes a pay cut, I think it’d be in Lou’s best interest to have Andy Greene replace Martin on the skill chart, while getting a player or two that can surpass him on it as well.
Colin White…White won’t be going anywhere unless Lou buys the final two years of his contract out or waives him, which he won’t do out of respect for one of his long time veterans. You can say Colin White is a “Lou-type” player and was rewarded for it in 2006 when he signed a six-year $18 million extension. For the better part of his career, I thought Colin White was a serviceable stay at home defenseman that fulfilled the requirements and expectations of his job until he received that eye injury at the beginning of the 2007-2008 season. He hasn’t been the same player ever since and has been scrutinized by Devils fans. A player like White, a mediocre defensive defenseman is generally recyclable and like defensive forwards, I think stay at home defenseman of White’s skill level should appropriately have short tenures with one team, let alone a general career. Colin White doesn’t do much fighting anymore, so don’t get excited about the forty-six penalty minutes he had this year and while his flaws and mishaps have been well documented over the past few seasons, he’s still a formidable force in the corners and front of the net…when his positioning is on track, but I think he lacks the energy he used to have when he was younger. You can say Mark Fraser, who outscored white this year by a goal, while manning significantly less ice time and appeared in less games could make a sufficient successor with more to offer.
Martin Brodeur…Yes, yes I know as long as the sky is blue and water is wet, Lamoriello won’t even entertain the thought of putting Brodeur in a situation, where he wouldn’t be back next year, although it could morally be the right thing to do for this team. You could argue the struggles the team endured throughout the second half of the season weren’t entirely Brodeur’s fault, but his average at best play remained constant, even with a lengthy rest period the Olympic Break gave him, where his struggles seemed to follow him and cost him the starting goaltending position for Team Canada. In the end, Marty got his seventy-plus games and forty-plus wins in, although his numbers were a notch or two lower than usual, he got his Vezina nomination and left his mark in this year’s goaltending statistics departments, while breaking a few more records, which seems to only be what matters to Brodeur at this stage in his career. Lemaire and Lamoriello can say how Marty wasn’t meant to play this much and throw as many excuses as fans convinced he’s still one of the best in today’s game will use to defend him, but the fact of the matter is, Marty’s proved once again he can’t maintain such a heavy regular season workload and take the pace and pressure of the playoffs anymore, which he and the team overlooked and ended up factoring in the Devil’s third consecutive first round exit…I won’t even get into how he was outplayed by a third string goalie. There is a possibility the Devils may go through a seasonal cycle of mediocrity as long as Brodeur’s still playing, who obviously has more say in what he does than any Devils coach. While it’s unlikely we’ll see Marty ever play anywhere but New Jersey, his alleged stubbornness is something Lamoriello has to figure a way to work around if he’s keen on salvaging the closing window of opportunity to get Marty one last cup before he calls it a career.
I’m going to try and get a Devil’s off-season write up posted by the end of the week. Overall, It’s clear Lamoriello has a lot on his plate this off-season, between hiring a new coach, and what changes he feels need to be done, whether they’ll keep the Devils in contention or cause them to take a step back for a season or two. Whatever the case, I’m hoping (because you never expect anything when you’re a fan of a Lou Lamoriello team) for an eventful off-season in New Jersey, at least more eventful than usual.
Devil’s Season in Review
It’s a little delayed but here it is…I figure a season review is appropriate for this team as that’s when they only seem to be good for as indicated this year and the past few. It was another season of ups and downs, where hopes were driven high, only to come crashing down as any momentum the team generated throughout the regular season was wasted on a third consecutive first round exit. How to fix this team is a whole other story so before I get into that, I’ll evaluate the Devil’s 2009-2010 regular season and try to assess what went right and wrong.
So, the Devils were surrounded with a lot of question marks going into the regular season. They lost some long time franchise faces in Brian Gionta and John Madden and filled their voids with rookie additions such as Niclas Bergfors and Matt Halischuk, along with Lou’s under the radar and last minute signings such as Rob Niedermayer, Cory Murphy, and Ilkka Pikkarainen. In addition, Jacques Lemaire was set to debut his second stint with the Devils after coaching for nine years in Minnesota. The Devils stumbled into the regular season, going 0-2 against two division rivals, which was followed by their annual surge that propelled them to the top of the conference. Despite a flurry of injuries to the likes of Paul Martin, Rob Niedermayer, Johnny Oduya, and David Clarkson, not to mention the belated return of Patrik Elias, the Devils found themselves on top of the standings. It was a time when everything was going right and everyone seemed to be playing at the top of their game, even the youngsters that were primarily occupying the roles made vacant due to the team’s second consecutive injury bug outbreak (although this year’s case was arguably less severe than last year’s).
Then…January came. From then on, things clearly fell apart in Devil Land as their record in the stretch remained slightly above the .500 mark, despite the return of injured veterans and what should have been a beneficial Olympic break at the end of February. In the midst of the team’s struggles, Lou even made what could have been the biggest trade of his career and franchise history when he sent Niclas Bergfors, Johnny Oduya, prospect Patrice Cormier, and a first round pick to the Atlanta Thrashers for superstar Ilya Kovalchuk and defenseman Anssi Salmela (both teams also swapped second round picks). While Kovalchuk maintained a point per game in the twenty-seven regular season games he played for New Jersey (10G, 17A), not even he, or trade deadline pickup Martin Skoula, were able to lift the Devils out of their funk that had a parasitic hold on them until the regular season concluded. Although they somehow won their ninth division title, it bore little meaning as the Devils fate was sealed when the finalized seedings revealed they would face the Philadelphia Flyers in the opening round, a team they went 1-5 against in the regular season.
The Flyers made short work of the Devils, who lasted just five games. Goaltending legend Martin Brodeur, who claimed records this year such as most career shutouts, games and minutes played by a goaltender, and becoming the first goaltender to reach six hundred wins was outplayed by interim replacement Brian Boucher. An amateur hockey fan would have been stunned if he looked at the playoff numbers of the two goalies, and would have perceived Boucher to be the superstar and Brodeur the replacement, whose superiors were plagued with injury. It’s evident it was the other way around. While some fanatics insist this year’s demise wasn’t Brodeur’s fault, I ultimately think these are fans drunk off the kool-aid with the pink glasses strapped to their heads, convinced Marty is still the best in the game…discussion of that topic is best reserved for another time though.
Offense…One of the big questions surrounding the offense was how it would perform under the defensive mind set of head coach Jacques Lemaire. Until January arrived, the Devils were scoring goals, making good use of the special teams, while improving their defensive game compared to how it was enforced under the two seasons Brent Sutter was head coach. January seemed to be the turning point of the Devils season, who were averaged 2.7 goals per game in the 2009 portion of the season, while averaging 2.4 goals since January. Although the Devils had a considerably productive season offensively, some of last year’s contributors saw a decrease in this year’s numbers compared to last year’s output. Just to mention a few, Zach Parise totaled thirty-eight goals and eighty-two points this year, still having a stellar season, which was a significant drop from the forty-five goals and ninety-four points he put up last year. Jamie Langenbrunner’s nineteen goals and sixty-one points was a slight drop off from the sixty-nine points he totaled last year, although he achieved a career-high twenty-nine goals in the 2008-2009 season. Although his season was riddled with injuries, Patrik Elias was on pace for twenty-seen goals and sixty-eight points, which would have been a decline from the thirty-one goals and seventy-eight points he accumulated last year.
For the second consecutive year, the Devils also failed to see any of their youth crop establish a full time role in the lineup. While Niclas Bergfors had a solid first half of the season, Lemaire seemed to lose confidence in his play, and he was eventually dealt to the Thrashers, where he seems to have rediscovered his scoring touch and is undoubtidely on the path to becoming a solid twenty-five, thirty goal scorer and power play specialist. Matt Halischuk started the season with the big team, but only lasted twenty games, during which he had a goal and assist each, while averaging third and fourth line minutes. After maintaining stellar play in Lowell, Vladimir Zharkov was called up in the midst of the Devil’s injury bug outbreak and stuck with the team, having played forty games, during which he accumulated ten assists and no goals, a likely factor that may have attributed to his limited ice time and games played down the stretch. Zharkov looks to be a promising player that needs a lesson or two on shooting and finishing, but could be deserving of a full time role next season, unless Lou has other plans for him in the off-season.
Overall, I felt the Devil’s offense managed to get the job done on most nights. I think the major issue up front was how the majority of the offensive output came from a small focus of players, while the rest of the offense gave streaky, yet sparing contributions. Of the two hundred twenty-two goals the Devils scored, fifty-nine percent came from six players. When all said said and done, only five players on the Devils scored more than fifteen goals this year (Kovalchuk scored ten goals in twenty-seven games), after which there was a steep drop-off. While the offensive numbers could have been different hadn’t the roster gotten riddled with injuries, I think one of the factors that hurt the Devils this year was how their offensive production wasn’t as spread out in the lineup, which arguably made their offensive threats easy to target and shut down.
Defense…The biggest story on the Devil’s blue line this year was Andy Greene, who finally got his chance to prove his worth and enjoyed a modest breakout season totaling six goals and thirty-seven points. Like I’ve said in previous write-ups, Greene had a great season, but his point contributions came in streaks, followed by lengthy periods during which he was arguably invisible, but did those little things that aren’t appreciated and don’t show up on the score sheet. After missing almost sixty games due to injury, Paul Martin returned and made his presence known, getting two goals and nine points in thirteen games, going plus nine. Had he started the season like that, Martin would have been on pace for a career year, but it’s uncertain if his performance may have been a delayed breakout or motivation from being in a contract year.
Now, Paul Martin and Andy Greene had respectable seasons and played huge roles on the blue line this year, but neither of them filled the team’s need or role of being that identifyable anchor man the defense has lacked since Brian Rafalski was on the team. As a result, it seemed Lemaire had to work with what he had and would take contributions from his defensemen wherever he could get them. The defense’s trend of sparing offensive contribution continues, as the defense only amounted twenty-four goals, nineteen amongst six defensemen that remained with the team and played twenty or more games. When the injury bug dropped Oduya and Martin out of the lineup, it gave rookie Mark Fraser an opportunity to prove his worth, which he did in the sixty-one games he played. While he made the occasional rookie mistakes here and there, which Lemaire would have overlooked had one of his veteran defensemen committed them, most Devils fans including myself were outraged when Fraser was the odd man out of the lineup after everyone became healthy. The majority of Devils fans preached to see Mike Mottau take a seat in the press box, myself included, until I noticed a disturbing factor Mottau had on the defense…he finished the season second amongst defensemen in points with two goals and eighteen points.
At the start of the season, I felt the Devils had a balance of puck moving and stay at home defensemen, however I thought each one was of mediocre quality and nobody truly excelled at playing the game of their player type. I believed this showed and was exploited throughout the season, especially when they faced teams that featured quality defensemen the Devils needed such as Philadelphia and Toronto (who the Devils struggled against this year). I think I can say in confidence the blue line’s absence of an established anchorman could have been the biggest factor that led to their early demise.
Goaltending…As usual, it was the Martin Brodeur show, a year in which he expanded his dominance of the history books, and finished atop in the categories of wins, and the major goaltending statistics. Marty got his seventy-five plus games and forty plus wins in, with nothing to show for it in the playoffs. Lou Lamoriello was quoted saying that they didn’t mean to play Brodeur as much as they did this year (but how many times have we heard that?). While I’d like to say Brodeur has been one of the game’s elite goaltenders up to this point, he had a perfectly capable backup in Yann Danis that only got the nod to start six times, going 3-2-1 and was pulled in one game. He also relieved Brodeur another five times throughout the season and played to the best of his capability whenever he was called upon, at least I thought so.
Martin Brodeur will be thirty-eight years old when the 2010-2011 season commences. With two years remaining on his contract and considering his questionable performance during the second half of the season, and the playoffs, there’s an abundance of question marks surrounding his status and current reputation, while the more avid critics have already written him off as being over the hill and set for a steep decline next season. I won’t even get into how Marty should have or needs to play less because it seems to be a concern that continues to be overlooked.
Devil’s Playoff Trends
I think it’s safe to say the Devils were plain outplayed last night. The Flyers played like they wanted it more, while the Devils appeared to play like nothing was on the line. The Flyers were more physical, beat the Devils to practically every puck, and won most, if not all the battles along the boards and corners. The Flyers played with a flare in their game that I used to see in the Devils teams of the late 90s and early 00s. I also don’t think you can blame Brodeur for that loss, who played fantastic, especially in that third period. I think it’s safe to say if Marty wasn’t in net, this game wouldn’t have even reached overtime.
Two for eight on the power play in another game that was highly influenced by officiating is both encouraging, yet concerning. I watch this team’s power play and to me, it looks too routine, making these advantageous situations predictable and easy to counteract for the Flyers. Despite having the likes of Illya Kovalchuk, Brian Rolston, Paul Martin, and Andy Greene manning the points, I think the Devils rely on the point shot too much, as they have on the power play all year. Just once, I’d like to see them try to work the puck down low and around the net for two reasons…the first is I think it could make the Devils less predictable in the man advantage situations and a more likely chance putting one past Boucher. Second, trying to set up lower in the offensive zone opens up more space, especially at the point, who they could feed for that unexpected shot. I look at the Devils power play and think the Flyers penalty killers are successful in keeping the Devils to the outside, while sustaining the perfect amount of pressure on their point men. I’m just wondering how it would look if the Devils get more mobile on the power play and try using the guys in deep to set something up. Any thoughts?
Moving on, I’ve been a huge Mark Fraser fan all year, but putting him in the lineup while Martin Skoula sat was a dumb move in my opinion. Aside from the fact Fraser has zero playoff experience, he’s been the odd man out since the Devil’s blue line got healthy, save those occasional games, where he filled in for players Lemaire wanted to rest towards the end of the season. I guess the point I’m trying to get at is it probably wasn’t too smart to take a player in Fraser, who was exiled to the press box when he wasn’t needed any longer, in his rookie year, and put him in a high pressure situation that is a playoff game…in the opponent’s home arena. Fraser only had 5:52 of ice time last night, so technically, Lemaire was only playing five defensemen in a game, where you need all your players ready and reliable when you consider what’s definitely and potentially at stake…I don’t know but it seems hard to win a playoff game with five defensemen. I know Fraser was involved in that second goal, but my question to Lemaire is what if that were Colin White or Paul Martin that made that same mistake? Would you have banished them from the ice the same way you did to Fraser? And if you’re going to have that tight of a leash on a defenseman, while you sit out an experienced and capable veteran-well…how much sense does that really make, if you’re seeing what I’m trying to get at.
Matt Corrente played another good game, but is having trouble finishing on his chances, whether it be the bounces not going his way or maybe he’s just getting lucky. I think Lemaire’s handling of the fourth line is appropriate, but it somewhat shows his lack of faith and arguably comparative depth to the Flyer’s forwards. Between McAmmond, PL3, and Corrente, they averaged seven minutes of ice time last night, whereas the average ice time of the Flyer’s three least played forwards averaged a little over eight minutes, who I’m sure weren’t on the same line. To me, it just seems that Lemaire is handling the lineup like it’s still the regular season, which is the proper time to experiment with players as far as role and ice time is concerned. Overall, you know the Devils fourth line is incapable of handling a heavy workload, which is why you limit their ice time as he did throughout the regular season, but in a series like this when you need a four line team able to be deployed, does it make much sense to keep the same guys whose role and how much faith you have in their capabilities was clarified in the months prior?
The last time the Devils were down two games to one in a playoff series, came back, and won was in the 2007 conference quarter finals against Tampa Bay. Although they won three in a row to eliminate the Lightning in six games, they were dismissed from the playoffs in the next round by the Ottawa Senators in five games, which marked the last time a Devils team advanced beyond the first round of the playoffs. The question I present is what is causing the Devils to go into dysfunctional mode every time the playoffs come around? Since their 2003 championship, they’ve been unable to make the deep playoff run their fan base and outside spectators become convinced of whenever they get hot around December, January. What’s more discouraging is the Devils have been unable to succeed in the playoffs through different scenarios, which created and diffused the various excuses that were used.
Everyone thought it was because Brodeur was burnt out from a heavy workload endured during the regular season. Last year, Marty missed over half the season due to injury on a team that was humming offensively. Upon Marty’s return, he started off hot and then went downhill subsequent to the trade deadline…we all know what happened next. Another excuse was the Devil’s lack of fire power up front, which we thought the breakout play of Travis Zajac and Zach Parise, along with the revitalization of Patrik Elias’ play, and arrival of Brian Rolston solved last year…this year, the Devils still have those four AND even traded for superstar Illya Kovalchuk…I don’t want to say the Devil’s are fated for a third consecutive first round exit, but you have to agree things aren’t looking too good right now, even with these offensive assets that make an arguably competitive looking team on paper.
A few commonalities I’ve noticed with this team and the recent Devils teams unable to get the job done are the absence of an anchorman on defense and regardless of what the team or Brodeur has gone through, Marty plays the majority of regular season games he’s able to (i.e. whenever he isn’t injured or suspended, which has yet to happen). Also, look at the most looked upon members of Devils teams since 2003…Elias, Brodeur, Langenbrunner, White, Martin. I bring these guys up because they’re mostly similar in age and have been here the longest, whose roles have changed little or remained stagnant. Could it be their time has passed and it’s time to move on and instill new blood into this team? Now’s not the time to go into detail, although it’s something to ponder.
I know I may sound like it’s over, which it isn’t, but at the same time, I’m at a loss on figuring out anything realistic we can see this team do and change to turn their play around. Anything else I may say hasn’t already been said and is apparently oblivious to Lemaire, Lamoriello, and the team they monitor and maintain. An NHL playoff series is best of seven and as long as the Devils are still in it, there’s no reason for us not to have as much confidence in this team as we may have had going into this playoff series.
New Series, New Hope
Well…what an exciting game on Friday. Fans, bloggers, and analysts of both teams anticipated a higher scoring, up tempo, and intensified game with heightened physical play, which they certainly got. I’ll admit I gave up any hope I clung onto after the first period concluded, convinced the Flyers were set to take over the game and establish a comfortable two game to none lead as the series returns to their home turf. I was going to submit a review for game one, but figured anything I’d have said wasn’t already said. What I will say is both teams stepped their play up last night with the outcomes of both games in Newark resetting the stand and practically makes for an entirely new series as the Devils venture into oppressing territory.
A few thoughts on the team’s play…
I thought Patrik Elias and Zach Parise played like two men possessed on Friday after making up for their arguable absence in Game One. It’s clear what players show up for each team can make the difference in the outcome and ultimately the series. While it’s better said than done, if Elias and Parise, two vital parts of the Devil’s core and offense continue to maintain that level of intensity in their play, it could help carry this team to untold distances.
I don’t want to say the officiating played a factor in Game Two, but I felt it was one-sided. The officials appeared to hawk the Devils, which resulted in two Flyer power play goals. Out of the fourteen penalties that were called, there was almost a two-to-one ratio between the Devils the Flyers, who had five penalties called against them, while the Devils received nine. Speaking of special teams, it was encouraging the Devils were able to finally convert on the power play, but the Flyers continued to utilize these advantageous situations, which got them a pair of goals. I thought the Devils penalty kill was decent last night, and I liked how Lemaire deployed Parise, who got the team a riveting shorthanded goal to open up the scoring.
While Illya Kovalchuk continued to be the game’s main difference maker, I think he’s settled down some compared to Game One and the fact he notched his first goal, point, and win of the playoffs lifts a huge burden off his shoulders. Although his goal was an open net, it relieved the Devils of a great stress and secured them a very important win, while giving Kovy some assurance that he’s still able to contribute and score. We all know Kovy feels a constant need to prove himself since he arrived in New Jersey, likely due to the high expectations that came with him, considering how Lou Lamoriello officially declared his team in Stanley Cup contention by making the move. I say Kovy builds on his performance from last night as we all know he can make a huge difference if his A-game awakens. With Kovalchuk on topic though, I was a little annoyed at his hat trick of penalties, although you have to admire and argue they were committed in the heat of the moment and generated from his own intensity. Let’s exile his prior playoff performance in 2007, when he was a frequent visitor in the sin bin and use the excuse this being only his second playoff series and first time on a contending team has him going…perhaps a little too much.
Like Kovalchuk, I thought Colin White played spectacular (penalties aside). He had a goal, was a plus two, played a sound physical game, and was wreaking havoc in the corners and hawking the front of the net. Don’t shun me for saying, but his play reminded me of him in his younger years. Good looks Colin.
Game three starts tonight at six. The Flyers are going to be fired up to play on their home ice in front of their home crowd (who I hope are more supportive than the Devil’s home crowd was to them…I doubt you’ll hear any “Marty!” chants at the Wachovia Center like how you heard the “Bouch!” chants every time he touched the puck during the past two games), so the Devils have to carry over the momentum they gained from Game Two and keep their intense play up. I say the series will be decided when these teams return to Newark for Game Five.
Lets see what happens.
On a few side notes, I watched the Caps/Habs game last night and to say the Washington Capitals aren’t the most exciting team to watch is ludicrous in my humble opinion. The up tempo style they play, unrelenting offense that didn’t give up after being down by three, and how that team utilizes one another is just astounding and admirable. That’s the series I look to catch games of, long as it doesn’t interfere with the Devils game times.
I’m also looking at this year’s playoff match ups, the teams and players that are participating and ask the question…could this year’s playoffs and match ups be the best set we as hockey fans have seen in some time? A little something to think about.
Devils Playoff Preview
When I was looking through the standings and researching the Devil’s potential first round opponents, I got this gnawing feeling in the pit of my stomach when I realized the Philadelphia Flyers were among the candidates. When the Devils concluded their regular season against the Buffalo Sabres, I had the most apathetic attitude watching a Devils game in some time for obvious reasons…The Devils won, so they secured the second seed in the Eastern Conference, their first time since 2007, and ended the regular season on a high note. Then again, had the Devils fallen to Buffalo in regulation, they’d have dropped to third and would have faced the Boston Bruins, a team they went 3-1 against in the regular season, and could have had a more manageable series.
For some Devils fans, this stone set match up against the Philadelphia Flyers could resurrect dormant memories of the fiasco that led to last year’s abrupt exit against the Carolina Hurricanes. The scenario is all too familiar: A team the Devils had trouble facing in the regular season that they might not necessarily match up too well against, and could continue riding the momentum of a last minute push that got them into the playoff bubble. Could the players that suffered last year’s stunning game seven loss take anything they’ve learned from that disastrous experience to prevent the same or identical incident from transpiring in these coming games? The answer is shrouded in the untold future.
Now, as grim as I may sound, I haven’t lost any faith in my team as we all know regular season and playoff hockey are on two entirely different platforms and give all sixteen teams a clean slate. Although this year’s struggles against the Flyers have been well documented (going 1-5 versus Philadelphia), I’m a firm believer that anything can happen in the playoffs. Having said that, it’s up to the Devils team on how willing they are to take the Flyers head on and to also know the Flyers are no exception to the fact that each team has to be addressed and analyzed differently.
At the beginning of the season, you would think the Flyer’s roster displayed the perfect team, although their record this season has proved else wise. I’ll first look at how the Flyers and Devils match up offensively, defensively, and in net. On paper, Philly has an abundance of fire power up front that should expectedly give them one of the most productive offenses in the league. Having said that, the Flyer’s offense struggled to return to the level they were at last year, with their leading goal scorer notching thirty-three (Jeff Carter), and Mike Richards notching sixty-two points to lead the team. This pales in comparison to last year’s numbers when Jeff Carter led the team with eighty-four points and forty-six goals. However, New Jersey scored fourteen less goals than Philadelphia, whose contributors appear to be more distributed throughout their offense, not to mention the roster struggled with injuries and adjusting to a coaching change throughout the season. Save the plethora of goaltending injuries, the Flyers are going into the playoffs with a very healthy and experienced offense, featuring a solid compromise of home grown and acquired players that are very much capable of waging an unrelenting attack.
At the Devil’s camp, most of their generated offense focuses on a handful of players, after which there’s a slight drop-off. The rest of the offense provides a solid support cast, featuring streaky point contributors that do a lot during games that doesn’t necessarily show up on the score sheet. Looking at the Devil’s offense, the major difference is the presence of Illya Kovalchuk, who maintained a point per game after being acquired in February (ten goals, seventeen assists). When he’s on top of his game, I think it’s safe to say he’s the best player from either team, although his lack of playoff experience makes it uncertain to determine whether he’s an effective performer or disappears when it truly matters. While he was neutralized in his 2007 playoff debut with Atlanta, who got swept in the first round by the New York Rangers, let’s go on and say this time around, Kovalchuk is going into the post-season with a clean slate on a new team that surrounds him with a stronger support cast. Between the likes of Zach Parise, Jamie Langenbrunner, Travis Zajac, and Patrik Elias, who have all been there before and performed relatively well this year, it gives head coach Jacques Lemaire a lot to work with as far as lines are concerned, along with getting Kovalchuk going.
Philadelphia’s defense is anchored by Chris Pronger, whose arguably had success follow him to every team he’s been on since leaving St. Louis, and Kimmo Timonen. both of which respectively amounted for ten goals, fifty-five points, and six goals, thirty-nine points. After those two, the Flyers have Matt Carle and Braydon Coburn, who respectively amounted six goals, thirty-five points, and five goals, nineteen points. Between their top four, it’s clear Philadelphia’s defense can become an accountable offensive factor, having scored a combined thirty-two goals amongst eight defensemen, twenty-seven of those goals coming from the four players I mentioned. On the flip side, the Flyer’s defense corps went a combined minus six this season, although their top four combined for a plus thirty-three. Nonetheless, Philadelphia’s defense features a seemingly perfect assembly from puck movers to rugged stay at home defenders, capable of clearing out the front of the net and wreaking havoc in the corners.
While their opponent’s defense is anchored by two established and effective defenders, the Devil’s blue line is fronted by…a buoy? Andy Greene enjoyed a breakout season of six goals and thirty-seven points, the most amounted by a Devils defenseman since Brian Rafalski left, while a healthy Paul Martin put up two goals and nine points in thirteen games after being hurt most of the season. To sum up the drop off in the defense’s offensive capability, the sixteen goals all six defensemen likely to be featured in the lineup scored this season equaled the goal output of Chris Pronger and Kimmo Timonen. Having said that, what the defense lacks in offense is compensated in their defensive game, as the Devils gave up the fewest goals in the league, thanks to the defensive element Lemaire reintroduced to their game. While I’ve avidly criticized Lemaire’s philosophy because it leashed the offense, if the Devil’s defense continues doing those little things that don’t appear on the score sheet and play a smart and sound game, they could become the unsung heroes that help the Devils advance beyond the first round for the first time since 2007…also, it’s probably nothing to get excited about, but Mike Mottau, who’s received gratuitous amounts of criticism from Devils fans and bloggers, has two goals and three points in the past twelve post-season games he’s played with New Jersey. Nonetheless, I’m going to have to give the Flyers the upper hand in defense, especially if they take advantage of any offensive opportunities that come about.
Head-to-head, there’s no contest between Martin Brodeur and Brian Boucher, the projected starters for both teams. I can say in confidence the nod in goaltending edge goes to the Devils, but the uncertainty in reliability on net minders for both teams stands. Brian Boucher was the best the Flyers could do on short notice to occupy their goaltending void, who’s had little to show in the stretch, going 9-18-4 with a 2.76 GAA and .899 SV%. The Devils were able to solve Boucher once, who was in net for the Flyer’s only loss to New Jersey, but made up for the instance in the series finale, which the Flyers won 5-1. Boucher is a familiar playoff nemesis of the Devils, who was in net in the 2000 Eastern Conference Finals, a series that was rendered as one of the greatest playoff comebacks of the time, when the Devils rallied after being down three games to one, going on to capture their second Stanley Cup. That was ten years ago, during which Boucher and the Devils team have undergone drastic changes for the better and worse. 2000 was also the last year Boucher captured a playoff victory, winning eleven of eighteen games. Since then, Boucher’s only appeared in four playoff contests, collecting a loss, while being a reliever in the other three.
Brodeur’s a proven winner with a decorated playoff history, but between him and Boucher, I think Brodeur has a lot more to lose and prove. Since winning the Stanley Cup in 2003, Brodeur’s gone 15-22 and hasn’t gotten his team past the first round since 2007. Despite his questionable playoff performances, he’s played some of his best hockey since and continues to be the backbone of every Devils team in the past decade or so. In recent years, One could say Brodeur has nothing to prove, but I’m contradicting that belief, especially if Brodeur wants any consideration of him still being one of the game’s elite goaltenders that can make a difference in the playoffs taken seriously. The memories of last year’s first round fiasco should be enough motivation for the Devils and Brodeur to properly support each other to get through this series, for which every win they’ll have to earn through a sixty-minute effort, a rarity of this team since January.
It’s an interesting match up in that both teams are obviously superior over their opponent in one category, but make up for their flaws in another. This series looks to have the power to be completely one-sided if one team brings their A-game and their opponent decides to do else wise, but also has potential to be a closely grueling series if both teams clash on top of their game. It’s a series that has potential to six or seven games and if it comes to that, I strongly believe the winner limps into the next round with uncertain fate of going any further. In addition, there are a few factors I think can come into play in deciding who advances and goes home early…
Having no place like home…Agree or disagree, I think home ice makes an impact in this series. This year, the Devils went 27-10-4 at home, while the Flyers went 24-14-3. Although both teams had turbulent road records, I think the numbers are intriguing as the Devils went 21-17-3, while the Flyers went 17-21-3. The Flyers perfected the Devils on their home turf, while the Devils captured their only victory at the Rock. If the Devils can incorporate their season’s home ice successes, where the Flyers had trouble winning (at the Rock) prior to this year into the playoffs, it could make for a promising outcome in their favor.
Shots! Shots! Shots! Shots! Shots! Shots! Shots! Shots! Shots! Shots! Shots! Shots! Shots! Shots! Shots! Shots! Everybody…! While it’s general basic logic, whoever shot more in each game…won. This year, Brodeur put up a typical SV% of him at .916 that was likely derived from his and the team’s streaky play throughout January, combined with his inhuman play that lasted from October to late December. I guess what I’m trying to say is Marty and the Devil’s habitual record of winning one or two in a row and then losing one to three in a row, while averaging anywhere from one to three goals against throughout that span dented, but didn’t implode the numbers Brodeur was maintaining the first half of the season. Against the Flyers, Brodeur’s SV% was about .876, having given up twenty goals on one hundred sixty-two shots during the six games. On the other hand, Boucher’s SV% for the year was .899, but he went .912 in the two games he played against the Devils, during which he gave up five goals on sixty-one shots. Overall, the point I’m trying to get across is based on the numbers, the goalie that receives the most shots could make their team more vulnerable.
Specializing in special teams…So the Devils finished the year ranked eleventh at 18.7% on the power play, while the Flyers finished third at 21.4%. The Flyers finished eleventh on the penalty kill at 83%, while the Devils were two notches below at 82.8%. The Devils also scored shorthanded seven times, the Flyers six. This year, the Devils went five for thirty-two on the power play against the Flyers, who had far less advantageous opportunities than the Devils, but fared better statistically as they went four for fourteen. If the regular season numbers are any indication, it’s imperative for the Devils to stay out of the box this series, while trying to get their act together when they’re up a man because those special team numbers heavily favor the Flyers outside of five-on-five play.
Like I said, it’s clear both teams have their strengths and weaknesses of various extremes that can help or hurt their chances of going any deeper than the first round. While this wasn’t the match up I was hoping the Devils would get, I’m anticipating a close, up tempo, and physical series that won’t be as one sided as some of the predictions I’ve seen and heard. Me? I don’t make playoff predictions…call me a woos, ask me why, I just don’t. I guess you could say I’m a believe in letting things take their course, especially when its something you have no control over. Nonetheless, I’m going to support and stand by my team, who I think is very capable of besting their current opponent and making their deepest playoff run since 2003.
Let’s see what happens.
