Devils Playoff Preview
When I was looking through the standings and researching the Devil’s potential first round opponents, I got this gnawing feeling in the pit of my stomach when I realized the Philadelphia Flyers were among the candidates. When the Devils concluded their regular season against the Buffalo Sabres, I had the most apathetic attitude watching a Devils game in some time for obvious reasons…The Devils won, so they secured the second seed in the Eastern Conference, their first time since 2007, and ended the regular season on a high note. Then again, had the Devils fallen to Buffalo in regulation, they’d have dropped to third and would have faced the Boston Bruins, a team they went 3-1 against in the regular season, and could have had a more manageable series.
For some Devils fans, this stone set match up against the Philadelphia Flyers could resurrect dormant memories of the fiasco that led to last year’s abrupt exit against the Carolina Hurricanes. The scenario is all too familiar: A team the Devils had trouble facing in the regular season that they might not necessarily match up too well against, and could continue riding the momentum of a last minute push that got them into the playoff bubble. Could the players that suffered last year’s stunning game seven loss take anything they’ve learned from that disastrous experience to prevent the same or identical incident from transpiring in these coming games? The answer is shrouded in the untold future.
Now, as grim as I may sound, I haven’t lost any faith in my team as we all know regular season and playoff hockey are on two entirely different platforms and give all sixteen teams a clean slate. Although this year’s struggles against the Flyers have been well documented (going 1-5 versus Philadelphia), I’m a firm believer that anything can happen in the playoffs. Having said that, it’s up to the Devils team on how willing they are to take the Flyers head on and to also know the Flyers are no exception to the fact that each team has to be addressed and analyzed differently.
At the beginning of the season, you would think the Flyer’s roster displayed the perfect team, although their record this season has proved else wise. I’ll first look at how the Flyers and Devils match up offensively, defensively, and in net. On paper, Philly has an abundance of fire power up front that should expectedly give them one of the most productive offenses in the league. Having said that, the Flyer’s offense struggled to return to the level they were at last year, with their leading goal scorer notching thirty-three (Jeff Carter), and Mike Richards notching sixty-two points to lead the team. This pales in comparison to last year’s numbers when Jeff Carter led the team with eighty-four points and forty-six goals. However, New Jersey scored fourteen less goals than Philadelphia, whose contributors appear to be more distributed throughout their offense, not to mention the roster struggled with injuries and adjusting to a coaching change throughout the season. Save the plethora of goaltending injuries, the Flyers are going into the playoffs with a very healthy and experienced offense, featuring a solid compromise of home grown and acquired players that are very much capable of waging an unrelenting attack.
At the Devil’s camp, most of their generated offense focuses on a handful of players, after which there’s a slight drop-off. The rest of the offense provides a solid support cast, featuring streaky point contributors that do a lot during games that doesn’t necessarily show up on the score sheet. Looking at the Devil’s offense, the major difference is the presence of Illya Kovalchuk, who maintained a point per game after being acquired in February (ten goals, seventeen assists). When he’s on top of his game, I think it’s safe to say he’s the best player from either team, although his lack of playoff experience makes it uncertain to determine whether he’s an effective performer or disappears when it truly matters. While he was neutralized in his 2007 playoff debut with Atlanta, who got swept in the first round by the New York Rangers, let’s go on and say this time around, Kovalchuk is going into the post-season with a clean slate on a new team that surrounds him with a stronger support cast. Between the likes of Zach Parise, Jamie Langenbrunner, Travis Zajac, and Patrik Elias, who have all been there before and performed relatively well this year, it gives head coach Jacques Lemaire a lot to work with as far as lines are concerned, along with getting Kovalchuk going.
Philadelphia’s defense is anchored by Chris Pronger, whose arguably had success follow him to every team he’s been on since leaving St. Louis, and Kimmo Timonen. both of which respectively amounted for ten goals, fifty-five points, and six goals, thirty-nine points. After those two, the Flyers have Matt Carle and Braydon Coburn, who respectively amounted six goals, thirty-five points, and five goals, nineteen points. Between their top four, it’s clear Philadelphia’s defense can become an accountable offensive factor, having scored a combined thirty-two goals amongst eight defensemen, twenty-seven of those goals coming from the four players I mentioned. On the flip side, the Flyer’s defense corps went a combined minus six this season, although their top four combined for a plus thirty-three. Nonetheless, Philadelphia’s defense features a seemingly perfect assembly from puck movers to rugged stay at home defenders, capable of clearing out the front of the net and wreaking havoc in the corners.
While their opponent’s defense is anchored by two established and effective defenders, the Devil’s blue line is fronted by…a buoy? Andy Greene enjoyed a breakout season of six goals and thirty-seven points, the most amounted by a Devils defenseman since Brian Rafalski left, while a healthy Paul Martin put up two goals and nine points in thirteen games after being hurt most of the season. To sum up the drop off in the defense’s offensive capability, the sixteen goals all six defensemen likely to be featured in the lineup scored this season equaled the goal output of Chris Pronger and Kimmo Timonen. Having said that, what the defense lacks in offense is compensated in their defensive game, as the Devils gave up the fewest goals in the league, thanks to the defensive element Lemaire reintroduced to their game. While I’ve avidly criticized Lemaire’s philosophy because it leashed the offense, if the Devil’s defense continues doing those little things that don’t appear on the score sheet and play a smart and sound game, they could become the unsung heroes that help the Devils advance beyond the first round for the first time since 2007…also, it’s probably nothing to get excited about, but Mike Mottau, who’s received gratuitous amounts of criticism from Devils fans and bloggers, has two goals and three points in the past twelve post-season games he’s played with New Jersey. Nonetheless, I’m going to have to give the Flyers the upper hand in defense, especially if they take advantage of any offensive opportunities that come about.
Head-to-head, there’s no contest between Martin Brodeur and Brian Boucher, the projected starters for both teams. I can say in confidence the nod in goaltending edge goes to the Devils, but the uncertainty in reliability on net minders for both teams stands. Brian Boucher was the best the Flyers could do on short notice to occupy their goaltending void, who’s had little to show in the stretch, going 9-18-4 with a 2.76 GAA and .899 SV%. The Devils were able to solve Boucher once, who was in net for the Flyer’s only loss to New Jersey, but made up for the instance in the series finale, which the Flyers won 5-1. Boucher is a familiar playoff nemesis of the Devils, who was in net in the 2000 Eastern Conference Finals, a series that was rendered as one of the greatest playoff comebacks of the time, when the Devils rallied after being down three games to one, going on to capture their second Stanley Cup. That was ten years ago, during which Boucher and the Devils team have undergone drastic changes for the better and worse. 2000 was also the last year Boucher captured a playoff victory, winning eleven of eighteen games. Since then, Boucher’s only appeared in four playoff contests, collecting a loss, while being a reliever in the other three.
Brodeur’s a proven winner with a decorated playoff history, but between him and Boucher, I think Brodeur has a lot more to lose and prove. Since winning the Stanley Cup in 2003, Brodeur’s gone 15-22 and hasn’t gotten his team past the first round since 2007. Despite his questionable playoff performances, he’s played some of his best hockey since and continues to be the backbone of every Devils team in the past decade or so. In recent years, One could say Brodeur has nothing to prove, but I’m contradicting that belief, especially if Brodeur wants any consideration of him still being one of the game’s elite goaltenders that can make a difference in the playoffs taken seriously. The memories of last year’s first round fiasco should be enough motivation for the Devils and Brodeur to properly support each other to get through this series, for which every win they’ll have to earn through a sixty-minute effort, a rarity of this team since January.
It’s an interesting match up in that both teams are obviously superior over their opponent in one category, but make up for their flaws in another. This series looks to have the power to be completely one-sided if one team brings their A-game and their opponent decides to do else wise, but also has potential to be a closely grueling series if both teams clash on top of their game. It’s a series that has potential to six or seven games and if it comes to that, I strongly believe the winner limps into the next round with uncertain fate of going any further. In addition, there are a few factors I think can come into play in deciding who advances and goes home early…
Having no place like home…Agree or disagree, I think home ice makes an impact in this series. This year, the Devils went 27-10-4 at home, while the Flyers went 24-14-3. Although both teams had turbulent road records, I think the numbers are intriguing as the Devils went 21-17-3, while the Flyers went 17-21-3. The Flyers perfected the Devils on their home turf, while the Devils captured their only victory at the Rock. If the Devils can incorporate their season’s home ice successes, where the Flyers had trouble winning (at the Rock) prior to this year into the playoffs, it could make for a promising outcome in their favor.
Shots! Shots! Shots! Shots! Shots! Shots! Shots! Shots! Shots! Shots! Shots! Shots! Shots! Shots! Shots! Shots! Everybody…! While it’s general basic logic, whoever shot more in each game…won. This year, Brodeur put up a typical SV% of him at .916 that was likely derived from his and the team’s streaky play throughout January, combined with his inhuman play that lasted from October to late December. I guess what I’m trying to say is Marty and the Devil’s habitual record of winning one or two in a row and then losing one to three in a row, while averaging anywhere from one to three goals against throughout that span dented, but didn’t implode the numbers Brodeur was maintaining the first half of the season. Against the Flyers, Brodeur’s SV% was about .876, having given up twenty goals on one hundred sixty-two shots during the six games. On the other hand, Boucher’s SV% for the year was .899, but he went .912 in the two games he played against the Devils, during which he gave up five goals on sixty-one shots. Overall, the point I’m trying to get across is based on the numbers, the goalie that receives the most shots could make their team more vulnerable.
Specializing in special teams…So the Devils finished the year ranked eleventh at 18.7% on the power play, while the Flyers finished third at 21.4%. The Flyers finished eleventh on the penalty kill at 83%, while the Devils were two notches below at 82.8%. The Devils also scored shorthanded seven times, the Flyers six. This year, the Devils went five for thirty-two on the power play against the Flyers, who had far less advantageous opportunities than the Devils, but fared better statistically as they went four for fourteen. If the regular season numbers are any indication, it’s imperative for the Devils to stay out of the box this series, while trying to get their act together when they’re up a man because those special team numbers heavily favor the Flyers outside of five-on-five play.
Like I said, it’s clear both teams have their strengths and weaknesses of various extremes that can help or hurt their chances of going any deeper than the first round. While this wasn’t the match up I was hoping the Devils would get, I’m anticipating a close, up tempo, and physical series that won’t be as one sided as some of the predictions I’ve seen and heard. Me? I don’t make playoff predictions…call me a woos, ask me why, I just don’t. I guess you could say I’m a believe in letting things take their course, especially when its something you have no control over. Nonetheless, I’m going to support and stand by my team, who I think is very capable of besting their current opponent and making their deepest playoff run since 2003.
Let’s see what happens.
