The Magic Deal
You really can’t make this sh*t up…Numerous reports have been circulating around the Internet that the league rejected the Devil’s most recent contract proposal to sign premiere left wing Ilya Kovalchuk over two weeks after the initial seventeen-year deal was rejected by arbitrator Richard Bloch. Reports are saying the length of the most recently proposed deal was anywhere from 10-15 years. Others indicate this was not the first deal the league has rejected. Since league representatives and the Devils have remained mum on the entire situation, we as fans can only speculate on what’s really going on behind the scenes and why this treacherous saga has continued as long as it has with its end seemingly shrouded in more mystery than the truth behind the Roswell crash or existence of Bigfoot and the Loch Ness Monster.
To speculate, one has to ask why a deal can’t be worked out that mutually satisfies both parties (Devils/Kovalchuk, NHL). Is it because The Devils or league are being too stubborn? Is the league on a witch hunt for the Devils? Does Gary Bettman want Kovalchuk to play on a team with a larger hockey market, if he wants to have Kovalchuk, let alone the game’s premiere talents in the league at all? Has the league finally had enough of what are being called “front loaded” contracts that stretch over a period of time? Most of these possibilities are more than likely to be untrue and are beliefs or conspiracy theories frustrated Devils fans developed in the heat of rage.
The origins behind Part II of the Kovalchuk Saga go back to the initial seventeen-year deal. Although I may have said else wise whether it was on Facebook, Twitter, or in previous write ups, I regret to admit the league and Richard Bloch’s decision to reject the deal was justified. Although the Devils likely meant well when the deal was signed, the contract was a definitively front loaded deal. Now with reports that the league has rejected framework of proposed deals by the Devils subsequent to the first one, the universal question amongst Devils fans and possibly hockey fans in general is what the framework of this “magic deal” ought to be.
The first and easiest part is determining the length. To sum it up, seventeen years was ridiculous and the Devils clearly chose that number to ably give Kovalchuk the $100 million he wanted, while having a manageable cap hit throughout its duration. Although nobody can say Kovalchuk won’t play until he’s forty-four, his age when the initial deal were to expire, I stated in a previous write up the statistical probability behind him playing at that age is less than one percent. You can argue from various standpoints why the initial deal shouldn’t have been rejected but it was and now it’s time to move on. I see no reason why the Devils can’t award Kovalchuk a career contract the league won’t have any issue with. 12-13 years is reasonable, and is about the average length of every long term contract that’s more than ten years. Kovalchuk will be 39-40 when the deal expires and there are plenty of people that have and still play at that age so I don’t want to hear the league whine about any uncertainties of that nature.
The biggest obstacle that’s kept the Kovalchuk Saga afloat is how to properly distribute the salary. If past reports are correct, the framework of the most recent deal the league shot down distributed $84-91 million over ten plus years. Whether Kovalchuk lowered his asking price, bonuses were involved, or the deal offered a sum of money up front (like what the Rangers did when they attempted to sign Joe Sakic in 1997, although that could be literal front loading so call me on it if that’s the case), the deal wasn’t valid in the league’s eyes. One thing we could use to reach a compromise are the contracts of Vancouver’s Roberto Luongo, Chicago’s Marian Hossa, Philadelphia’s Chris Pronger, and Boston’s Marc Savard, all of which are currently being “investigated” by the league. Despite these ongoing investigations, It’s my opinion the league used the Devils as an example in rejecting a legitimate front loaded contract and are using these contract investigations as a method of intimidation to at least make teams think twice about signing players to similar long term deals. If the contracts were approved in the past, why not use them as guidelines to work out a deal for Kovalchuk?
The key is in the numbers and percentages of these contracts and how they differ from the numbers that pieced together the rejected seventeen-year deal. Marian Hossa’s twelve-year contract pays him $63 million. He receives 87% of the $63 million in the first seven years of the deal, which makes up 58% of the contract’s term length. Chris Pronger’s seven-year deal pays him $31.2 million. He receives 97% of the $31.2 million after the first five years, after which 71% of the contract’s term length has been completed. Marc Savard’s seven-year contract pays him $28 million. After the first four years, he receives 91% of the $28 million, after which 57% of the contract’s term length has been completed. Roberto Luongo receives $64 million over twelve years. After eight years, he receives 89% of the $64 million, after which 66% of the contract’s term length has been completed. In Ilya Kovalchuk’s seventeen-year contract, where he would have received $102 million, he would have earned 93% of the $102 million in the first ten years after completing only 58% of the contract’s term length. Before the annual salaries drop to under $2 million in the contracts of the four players I mentioned, the average percentage of money that was paid off amongst the four players is 91% with an average of 63% of the contracts term lengths having passed. If you apply the average percentages of paid off salary and years completed in Kovalchuk’s rejected seventeen-year deal, he’d have received $92 million after the first 10-11 years, leaving $10 million to be distributed over the final 6-7 years.
In terms of percentages, could 91% in relation to salary distribution and 63% in relation to completed term length be the magic numbers? Although these numbers were averaged out of contracts that are “under investigation” in the event the Devils work out a deal based off these terms, it would be unreasonable for the league to reject the contract because the salary distribution over the period of years is within the bounds of contracts being investigated, which were previously approved by the league, and are still valid deals, which is something the Devils and NHLPA could use as leverage in the event of a second arbitration hearing, which at this point I believe would only happen in a case of extremes.
Getting back to what I was saying earlier, 12-13 years could be the length to shoot for. If Kovalchuk did indeed lower his asking price between $84-91 million (we’ll use $87 million over thirteen years in this hypothetical situation), he’ll receive $79 million after the first eight years of the contract, leaving $8 million to be distributed over the final five years, which averages out to about $1.6 million per. It would give Kovalchuk a $6.7 million cap hit per season, only $700K more than the cap hit in the seventeen-year deal. I’m not one to speculate, but if I were to distribute the $87 million salary over thirteen years based on the “magic terms” I described above, I would structure it as follows:
2010-2011: $9.4 million
2011-2012: $10.7 million
2012-2013: $11.7 million
2013-2014: $11.7 million
2014-2015: $11.5 million
2015-2016: $10.5 million
2016-2017: $8 million
2017-2018: $5.5 million
2018-2019: $3 million
2019-2020: $2 million
2020-2021: $1 million
2021-2022: $1 million
2022-2023: $1 million
At first sight, the deal does appear front loaded but I made sure to put in some distinguishable differences from the contracts I mentioned above. Although Kovalchuk’s highest annual payment would earn him $11.7 million, note the greatest fluctuation on a year-to-year basis throughout the deal is $2.5 million, compared to fluctuations that exceed $3 million in the other deals. Kovalchuk also receives a salary under $2 million in the final three years, which is the average number of years the players of the four other contracts I used earn salaries under $2 million. I would also give Kovalchuk an NMC and NTC that remains active throughout most or the entire contract, giving him the final call in the event he or the Devils look into moving him. I wouldn’t call it the perfect contract, but based on the numbers I’ve accumulated, could be the magic terms the Devils and NHL could agree upon to end this treacherous drama. Could this truly be the remedy to the ongoing saga or did I just waste your precious time and describe another deal the league would simply shoot down a third time?
All contract information was obtained from www.capgeek.com. You can follow me on Twitter @mluciano26 or e-mail me at fr0z3nf1r326@aol.com.
So…What Now for the Devils?
I’ve really been enjoying this off-season solely because it seems there hasn’t been a single dull moment since the 2009-2010 NHL campaign concluded. It’s no new news that the NHL rejected the seventeen-year $102 million contract the New Jersey Devils awarded superstar left wing Ilya Kovalchuk, due to allegations that it doesn’t comply with the current collective bargaining agreement and a high amount of skepticism that Kovalchuk won’t be playing until he’s forty-four, which is how old he’ll be when the deal expires. The Devils have three options: submit a modified contract, let the NHLPA file grievance, or forget the whole thing and let Kovalchuk officially return to the UFA market. In all likeliness, I’m quite confident in saying Kovalchuk will still remain a long term Devil once everything has been settled. Not that I’m frustrated about the league’s rejection of the deal, rather I’m more annoyed that the drama is forcibly being continued.
As of now, the Devil’s current checklist should be as it stands: Settle the Kovalchuk dispute. Once that’s over and done with, refocus on the team’s salary cap situation. Once the team gets the flexibility they need in cap space, secure Zach Parise’s future with the team, which this article from the Star Ledger documented as an acknowledged priority. Lastly, evaluate the team and see if there’s room for additional improvement.
An informative source I have said a few NHL organizations avidly protested and complained about the Kovalchuk contract, the alleged ringleaders being the Los Angeles Kings, Philadelphia Flyers, and a third team believed to be the New York Rangers or Pittsburgh Penguins. I know Glen Sather and Lou Lamoriello are good friends so I’d find it unlikely the Rangers would protest any mega-deal, let alone the Kovalchuk deal, especially when you consider the team’s well-documented history of overpaying players over lengthy periods of time (this is not a shot at the Rangers FYI, although the Ranger’s deals never exceeded seven years).
I digress. Getting back to this new chapter in the Kovalchuk saga, I sympathize the league’s reasons for rejecting the deal, considering the length and how the $102 million is distributed (Kovalchuk will make less than $1 million per in the final six years)…yes, it’s a very front loaded deal and you could counter that by pointing out the numerous other front loaded contracts awarded to players in recent years, but apparently there was something different about this particular contract that gave the NHL reason to disprove it. This could be where the length of the contract comes into play, making it the longest deal in NHL history. Sure Ovechkin signed a thirteen-year deal, but he’ll be thirty-five when it expires. Rick DiPietro will be forty when his fifteen-year deal concludes, and Mike Richards and Marian Hossa will he thirty-five and forty-two when their twelve-year deals expire, respectively. Chris Pronger will be forty-two after his seven-year deal.
Marian Hossa is currently the only player in the NHL that’s currently under contract for more than ten years that expires when he’s over forty. At forty-four it seems unlikely for any athlete to be actively playing in any sport (although you never know what scientific or medical advances the future has in store for us…just saying) and despite the ability to use the likes of Mark Messier, Chris Chelios, Mark Recchi, Gordie Howe, and Igor Larianov as examples, I can’t stress the term “unlikely” enough as those are a handful of players that accomplished the feat out of thousands over the years. If you want to be technical and play a numbers game, Kovalchuk stands less than a one percent chance of playing beyond his early forties.
Fortunately, there are a few solutions to appease all parties involved in this dispute that I’m sure are being explored. The deal can be shortened, resulting in a larger cap hit for the Devils, or they can distribute the annual salaries a little more evenly. You can point out that the league accepted Chris Pronger’s contract with a salary drop-off around $3 million after the deal’s fourth and fifth years and how Pronger only receives $525,000 in the final two years of the deal. He does only receive a salary under $1 million for two years compared to the six Kovalchuk would, not to mention Pronger is thirty-five with his deal going into effect this coming season. Call me on it if I’m wrong, but I believe if Pronger retires, is waived, or brought out, the Flyers still carry his cap hit of $4.9 million, whereas the Devils could waive or buy out (I know there isn’t a chance it would happen considering the deal, but still) Kovalchuk’s contract without having to worry about the full cap hit of around $6 million because he was younger than thirty-five when the deal was signed. If the matter ends up going to court, the Devils and NHLPA seem confident of a favorable ruling. It could turn into a frustratingly long and tedious process, but could end weeks of speculation, drama, and frustration.
Assuming the Devils keep Kovalchuk, he’s going to have an annual cap hit of at least $6 million, exceeding the league’s salary cap limitation. As we all know, the Devils would have to get back under the salary cap before the coming season commences and speculation as to who the likely odd men out would be have already begun. The two most mentioned names and likely candidates to be victimized by salary dumping are forward Danius Zubrus and defenseman Bryce Salvador, who have a combined cap hit of $6.3 million. Zubrus and Salvador respectively have three and two years remaining on their contracts and while both players have been serviceable during their time with the Devils, neither has an NTC or NMC.
Contrary to what people want to believe, the Devils will not lose any significant skill by dumping salary to fit under the cap. Salvador is a solid shutdown defenseman, but doesn’t excel in the position and is ultimately replaceable. With youngsters like Mark Fraser, Anssi Salmela, and rookie hopefuls Matt Corrente, Alexander Urbom, and Tyler Eckford, I see no reason why they can’t replace Salvador and perform just as good if not better for a fraction of the cost. Some fans are hesitant to see Zubrus go because of his valiant playoff performance this past spring and the versatility that’s featured in his game. Zubrus can play any forward position and any role but hasn’t surpassed totals no higher than fifteen goals or forty points in his three years with New Jersey. His numbers can surely be replaced and with a depth chart revived with natural centers and wingers, it could lessen the significance of Zubrus’ ability to play center one night and left wing another.
Two players fans have fantasized about seeing moved are winger Brian Rolston and defenseman Colin White. Both have two years remaining on their deals, Rolston having a painful $5.2 million cap hit, while White’s is $3 million. Rolston has arguably underachieved when you consider his salary and expectations when he was signed, amassing only thirty-five goals in the past one hundred forty-four games he’s played since signing with the Devils, not to mention hasn’t factored much on the power play to the Devil’s benefit. Many argue Colin White hasn’t been the same since sustaining an eye injury that held him out for the beginning of the 2007-2008 season. White seldom fights anymore and isn’t the noticeable physical force, having once been described as another Scott Stevens in the making. Nonetheless, he’s still a sufficient defensive defenseman that could have outgrown his time in New Jersey. Should he end up a cap casualty, the loss won’t be as mournful as it seems, save losing a familiar face that’s been part of the team over a decade. Disposing of the combined $8.2 million in salary would help the Devil’s immensely, not to mention open opportunities for the youth crop on the big team. It’s great to dream, however the nature of the contracts really lessens the possibilities.
Saying the Devils can’t lock up Kovalchuk and Parise is a statement shrouded in ignorance and more so fueled by the want rather than belief of people to not see it happen. If the Detroit Red Wings can lock up Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, and Johan Franzen, I don’t see why the Devils can’t do the same with their core players. Parise stated he was further encouraged to stay with the Devils when they signed Kovalchuk because he was intrigued by playing with one of the game’s premiere stars that he felt could achieve long term success with. If Kovalchuk’s current deal stands, it’ll only be an average cap hit of $6 million per, which I’m sure has frustrated nay sayers that expected the deal to significantly cripple the Devil’s cap situation down the stretch. Parise will likely command an annual salary of at least $6-7 million over a span of six or more years with a cap hit that’ll be similar or identical to Kovalchuk’s. I don’t understand why people automatically assume a combined $12 million plus cap hit between two players will cripple a team down the road. Detroit has $12 million plus tied between Zetterberg and Datsyuk and they’re functioning nicely, the Flyers have the same amount tied between Briere and Timonen, and the Sharks have over $14 million tied between Thornton and Heatley.
The bottom line is you do what you have to in order to lock up your go to guys.
Need I remind my readers between the 2011 and 2013 off-season, the Devils currently have almost $30 million in salary coming off from players that are likely to retire, sign elsewhere, are replaceable, or re-sign for less money than what their current deals pay them. Although it’s stifled him in the past, look at the big picture, step back and think about it…do you really think Lou Lamoriello didn’t know what he was getting himself into before committing to Kovalchuk and likely doing the same (but probably to a lesser degree) for Parise? I think the Devils will be better off than most people think or want to believe as far as their cap situation is concerned.
Lastly, is there room on this team for further improvement? I can say in confidence the Devils are solid up front for the first time in years, but with an unproven Andy Greene as the only offensive force on the blue line, I’m sure the desire for another puck moving defenseman is mutual amongst fans. Cap space will obviously be a factor, but there are options out there. I’ve mentioned Tomas Kaberle, Brent Burns, and Sheldon Souray in previous write ups that bring the offensive skill the defense needs, although each player possesses their own individual catch. With the recent spur of trade rumors surrounding Kevin Bieska, you could assume the Devils have interest since there hasn’t been any public indication (jokingly of course). The only flaws to consider are his health problems as he’s never played a full season and he seems to be on the ice for a lot of goals against. Nonetheless, he’s the productive puck mover the team needs, who can be further disciplined by the team’s tradition of defensive maintenance, and should come at a reasonable price.
I know I rambled a bit and most of this write up featured retreads from past ones and summed up the major topics of recent discussion amongst the Devils community but I hope I at least provided a new angle of insight. I’m assuming the chronology of the events and tasks I mentioned should transpire in that order, starting with the imperative need to bury the hatchet on the Kovalchuk situation once and for all. Like I always say we’ll see what happens and it should be fun to see what the future holds.
Parise is Still the Main Man in New Jersey
Yes…it’s finally over. This is not a false alarm or report but Ilya Kovalchuk has finally signed with a team and that team happens to be the New Jersey Devils. I grew apathetic over the Kovalchuk dilemma that’s dragged on for nearly three weeks now some time ago but am just glad to see it’s finally come to an end. With the contract details yet to be officially released, I’m assuming the deal will put the Devils well over the cap, requiring them to move some players to get back under.
I’m glad Kovy decided to stay with the Devils, although I believe he’d have signed elsewhere before July 1st ended, had his options been broader. Nonetheless, his long term commitment to New Jersey has convinced me he likes what he sees here and thinks he can help return this team to their winning ways and deep playoff runs. He could have signed a one or two-year deal or played in Russia for a year if he had zero desire to return to New Jersey but didn’t. On paper, the Devils are obviously a dangerously deep team but how it pans out remains to be seen. Unlike the fanatics, I won’t commit to the equation that Kovalchuk= Cup just yet. What Kovalchuk re-signing means and brings, the Devil’s cap situation, and all that like is for another write up as I’ve written this to pass one message some Devils fans may have forgotten amidst today’s hype.
Zach Parise is still the main man in New Jersey.
Kovalchuk is arguably a better than Parise and you can build a franchise around either player, but assuming both players are still with the organization in five years, Zach Parise’s name will be the first that comes to mind if someone asked me to name an ideal New Jersey Devil. When Parise broke into the NHL in 2005, he had a promising rookie campaign, despite tallying mediocre numbers of fourteen goals and thirty-two points. He hasn’t scored less than thirty goals since the 2006-2007 season and established himself as a proven offensive force, worthy of consideration amongst the game’s elite players. Numbers aside, Parise symbolizes a new age in New Jersey Devils hockey and a passing of the torch from one franchise face (Brodeur) to the next, just as Scott Stevens did to Marty when he called it a career. When I look at the Devil’s roster, I can’t think of any other player more suitable and prepared to symbolically represent the New Jersey Devils, everything the organization represents, and what they seek out of their players than Zach Parise.
A homegrown star, Parise continues the tradition that started with players such as John MacLean and Ken Daneyko, and continued over the years as fans were privileged to see the likes of Kirk Muller, Scott Niedermayer, Martin Brodeur, Patrik Elias, and Petr Sykora just to name a few, make their mark on Devil’s history and turn the organization from a bottom feeder to an annual contender. While Parise’s yet to have a Stanley Cup ring, he has plenty of years left in him, most of which will hopefully be played in Newark. I also want to say Parise is one of the few “complete players” currently in the NHL, the kind that comes around once every ten plus years or so. He’s someone that gives no less than a full effort every night, scores, sets up, and is effective in all three zones, not to mention has shown flashes of leadership.
Right now I want to say captain Jamie Langenbrunner’s future with the team is uncertain and with a year remaining on the thirty-five year-old’s contract, the New Jersey Devil’s captaincy could be up for grabs for the third time since 2005. The hiring of John MacLean appears to have stabilized the Devil’s coaching situation for now so with that out of the way and assuming Langenbrunner will be or is already exiled from the Devil’s long term plans, I can’t think of anyone more suitable to inherit the captaincy than Parise. I want to say his stint with Team USA this year has indicated he can play effectively when it counts and in high pressure situations…if the rest of his team plays with at least half as much heart as he does. Moving forward, I think Parise also represents two vital things for Devils fans to believe in: The Devils will continue their tradition of annual contention and continual success in different forms and ways after the conclusion of all-time great Martin Brodeur’s career, and they have someone to look upon to spearhead that success as the team’s faces, whose roots go back to the fan entitled “glory days” fade and are replaced by newer younger faces set on achieving the same goals as their predecessors.
